El costo económico de los desastres naturales

el caso del tsunami y la emergencia nuclear en Japón en 2011

Palabras clave: contrafactual sintético, nuclear, Fukushima, ponderación óptima, tsunami

Resumen

En este trabajo estamos interesados en estimar el costo económico del tsunami ocurrido en 2011 en Japón, el cual afectó dramáticamente las prefecturas (provincias) de la región nororiental (Fukushima, Itawe y Miyagui) y originó la posterior emergencia nuclear causada por el daño del reactor de Fukushima. Para lograr el objetivo, se utiliza la metodología de control sintético (MCS) construyendo “prefecturas sintéticas” y utilizando las prefecturas que no fueron afectadas por el tsunami. Los resultados muestran que el costo del desastre en 2011 ascendió a 2,5 billones de yenes (23000 millones de USD), equivalente al 18% de un bloque del PIB (sumatoria de los PIB sectoriales relevantes para la economía de las tres prefecturas); así mismo, evidenciaron que el efecto causal positivo medido entre 2012 y 2014 fue de alrededor de 1,4 billones de yenes (12800 millones de USD), equivalente al 10% del PIB. Los resultados de este artículo son relevantes, pues proveen una metodología para estimar el efecto causal económico de desastres naturales o de conflictos.

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Biografía del autor/a

Jorge Hugo Barrientos-Marín, Universidad de Antioquia

Ph.D. en Economía

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Publicado
2020-07-09
Cómo citar
Barrientos-Marín, J. H., Ospina-Valencia, S., & Giraldo, S. (2020). El costo económico de los desastres naturales. Lecturas De Economía, (93), 225-260. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n93a340531
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Artículos