Elecciones presidenciales y desarrollo municipal: el caso colombiano (1986-2014)

Autores/as

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128

Palabras clave:

Componentes principales, comportamiento electoral, desarrollo, violencia

Resumen


¿Se puede explicar la probabilidad de votación de un candidato a partir de las condiciones municipales de violencia y desarrollo? Este artículo estudia el impacto del desarrollo económico y la violencia a nivel municipal sobre los patrones de votación en las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia para el período 1986-2014. Utiliza una metodología de Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) y genera un índice de votación municipal, el cual se utiliza como insumo principal junto con variables de desarrollo y violencia municipal en un modelo beta bayesiano. Al final, se concluye que con mayor nivel de educación y acceso a medios de comunicación se aumenta la probabilidad de votar por candidatos de derecha y menor probabilidad de votar por candidatos liberales.

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Biografía del autor/a

Luis Eduardo Sandoval-Garrido, Universidad Militar Nueva Granada

Associate Professor of Economics at the Military University Nueva Granada (Bogotá, Colombia), where I teach on the microeconomic theory, applied microeconometrics and political economy of conflict. I also teach: Introduction to Economics in Rosario University (Bogotá, Colombia), Advanced Game Theory and Advanced Microeconomic Theory  in Externado University (Bogotá, Colombia). Economic Development and Sustainability in Santo Tomas University (Bucaramanga, Colombia). Socioeconomic problematic, Economy and Finance in disaster cases and Economy of risk and disaster in the School of Military Engineers (Bogotá, Colombia).

I hold a PhD in Economics from the University of Chile and a MA in Economics from the Pontifical Javeriana University (Bogotá, Colombia).

My research topics examine the dynamics of social conflict and consequences of violence and inequality. My past work has focused on the individual political and economic consequences of conflict in Colombian case. My present work looks at the behavioral roots of delinquency, youth violence, and how elections, development and evaluation of security programs could cause reduction of crime. Much of my work employs data analysis, surveys and quasi-experiments in poor and conflict-affected regions.

Follow @luisesandoval

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2022-05-05

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Sandoval-Garrido, L. E., & Marín-Jaramillo, M. (2022). Elecciones presidenciales y desarrollo municipal: el caso colombiano (1986-2014). Lecturas De Economía, (97). https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128

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