Elecciones presidenciales y desarrollo municipal: el caso colombiano (1986-2014)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128Palabras clave:
Componentes principales, comportamiento electoral, desarrollo, violenciaResumen
¿Se puede explicar la probabilidad de votación de un candidato a partir de las condiciones municipales de violencia y desarrollo? Este artículo estudia el impacto del desarrollo económico y la violencia a nivel municipal sobre los patrones de votación en las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia para el período 1986-2014. Utiliza una metodología de Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) y genera un índice de votación municipal, el cual se utiliza como insumo principal junto con variables de desarrollo y violencia municipal en un modelo beta bayesiano. Al final, se concluye que con mayor nivel de educación y acceso a medios de comunicación se aumenta la probabilidad de votar por candidatos de derecha y menor probabilidad de votar por candidatos liberales.
Descargas
Métricas
Citas
Abrajano, M. A., & Alvarez, R. M. (2005). A Natural Experiment of Race-Based and Issue Voting: The 2001 City of Los Angeles Elections. Political Research Quarterly, 58(2), 203-218. https://www.deepdyve.com/lp/sage/a-natural-experiment-of-race-based-and-issue-voting-the-2001-city-of-37i1Z7mzri?key=sage
Abramowitz, A. I., & Segal, J. A. (1986). Determinants of the Outcomes of U.S. Senate Elections. The Journal of Politics, 48(2), 433-439. https://doi.org/10.2307/2131102
Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J. A., & Santos, R. J. (2013). The monopoly of violence: Evidence from Colombia. Journal of the European Economic Association, 11(suppl_1), 5-44. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01099.x
Akarca, A. T., & Tansel, A. (2006). Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the Turkish Parliamentary and Local Election Results Between 1950 and 2004. Public Choice, 129(1-2), 77-105. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25487580
Alfaro R., R. (2006). Elecciones nacionales 2006 en Costa Rica y la recomposición del sistema de partidos políticos. Revista de Ciencia Política, 26(1), 125-137. https://doi.org/10.4067/S0718-090X2006000100007
Altman, D. (2004). Redibujando el mapa electoral chileno: incidencia de factores socioeconómicos y género en las urnas. Revista de Ciencia Política, 24(2), 49-¬66. https://www.scielo.cl/scielo.php?pid=S0718-090X2004000200003&script=sci_arttext
Archer, K. (1987). A Simultaneous Equation Model of Canadian Voting Behaviour. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 20(03), 553-572. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900049921
Arenas-Gómez, J. C., & Bedoya-Marulanda, J. F. (2011). Las lógicas de la competencia electoral en escenarios locales: Medellín, 1988-2007. Revista Estudios Políticos, 39, 39-74. https://revistas.udea.edu.co/index.php/estudiospoliticos/article/view/11752
Arrow, K., Forsythe, R., Gorham, M., Hahn, R., Hanson, R., Ledyard, J., et al. (2008). The Promise of Prediction Markets. Science, 320, 877-878. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1157679
Banducci, S. A., & Karp, J. A. (2000). Gender, Leadership and Choice in Multiparty Systems. Political Research Quarterly, 53(4), 815-848. https://doi.org/10.2307/449262
Bandyopadhyay, S., & Chatterjee, K. (2006). Coalition Theory and Its Applications: A Survey. The Economic Journal, 116(509), F136-F155. https://www.jstor.org/stable/3590487
Bautista, L. (2005). Estrategia de muestreo para la estimación de la tasa de favoritismo en la elección presidencial conceptos básicos. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 28(1), 39¬-62. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/28815
Bawn, K. (1999). Voter Responses to Electoral Complexity: Ticket Splitting, Rational Voters and Representation in the Federal Republic of Germany. British Journal of Political Science, 29(03), 487-505. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123499000228
Bécue, M., Pages, J., & Pardo, C. E. (2005). Contingency Table with a Double Partition on Rows and Colums. Visualization and Comparison of The Partial and Global Structures. Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, 355-364. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.577.2088&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Blais, A., & Carty, R. K. (1991). The Psychological Impact of Electoral Laws: Measuring Duverger’s Elusive Factor. British Journal of Political Science, 21(01), 79-93. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400006037
Bobo, L., & Gilliam, F. D. (1990). Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment. American Political Science Review, 84(02), 377-393. https://doi.org/10.2307/1963525
Bovitz, G. L., & Carson, J. L. (2006). Position-taking and electoral accountability in the U.S. House of Representatives. Political Research Quarterly, 59(2), 297- 312. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4148096g
Burden, B. C., & Greene, S. (2000). Party Attachments and State Election Laws. Political Research Quarterly, 53(1), 63-76. https://doi.org/10.2307/449246
Caldeira, G. A., & Patterson, S. C. (1982). Bringing Home the Votes: Electoral Outcomes in State Legislative Races. Political Behavior, 4(1), 33-67. https://www.jstor.org/stable/586404
Campbell, J., Syed, A., & Jalalzai, F. (2006). Forecasting the Presidential Vote in The States, 1948-2004: An Update, Revision, and Extension of a State-Level Presidential Forecasting Model. Journal of Political Marketing, 5(1), 33-57. https://www.acsu.buffalo.edu/~jcampbel/documents/JofPolMarketing2006.pdf
Canache, D., Mondak, J. J., & Cabrera, E. (2000). Voters and The Personal Vote: A Counterfactual Simulation. Political Research Quarterly, 53(3), 663-676. https://doi.org/10.2307/449202
Cepeda, E. (2001). Modeling Variability in Generalized Linear Models [tesis doctoral, ]. Departamento de Estadistica, Universidad de Nacional de Colombia. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/handle/unal/11839/modelagem_variabilidade_modelos.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Cepeda, E., Achacar, J., & Garrido, L. (2012). Bivariate beta regression models: a Bayesian approach applied to educational data (Inf. Tec.). Departamento de Estadistica, Universidad de Nacional de Colombia.
Cepeda, E., Jaimes, D., Marin, M., & Rojas, J. (2013). Bayesian Beta Regression with the Bayesianbetareg R-Package [documento de trabajo, Departamento de Estadística, Facultad de Ciencias]. Universidad Nacional de Colombia. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/bitstream/handle/unal/20397/bayesianbetaregression....pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
Cepeda-Cuervo, E., Jaimes, D., Marin, M., & Rojas, J. (2016). Bayesian Beta Regression with Bayesianbetareg R-Package. Computational Statistics, 31(1), 165- 187. https://doi.org/10.1007/S00180-015-0591-9
Chen, L., & Tokuda, N. (2005). A general stability analysis on regional and National Voting Schemes Against Noise? why is an electoral college more stable than a Direct Popular Election? Artificial Intelligence, 163(1), 47-66. https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.5555/1062094.1062096
Cho, J. (2005). Media, Interpersonal Discussion, and Electoral Choice. Communication Research, 32(3), 295-322. https://doi.org/10.1177/0093650205275382
Damore, D. F., & Hansford, T. G. (1999). The Allocation of Party-Controlled Campaign Resources in The House of Representatives, 1989-1996. Political Research Quarterly, 52(2), 371-385. https://doi.org/10.1177/106591299905200206
Dow, J. K. (1998). A Spatial Analysis of The 1989 Chilean Presidential Election. Electoral Studies, 17(1), 61-76. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(97)00050-4
Dow, J. K., & Endersby, J. W. (2004). Multinomial Probit and Multinomial Logit: A Comparison of Choice Models for Voting Research. Electoral Studies, 23(1), 107-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0261-3794(03)00040-4
Dube, O., & Naidu, S. (2015). Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of US Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia. The Journal of Politics, 77(1), 249-267. https://doi.org/10.1086/679021
Epstein, D., & O’Halloran, S. (1999). Measuring The Electoral and Policy Impact of Majority- Minority Voting Districts. American Journal of Political Science, 367-395. https://doi.org/10.2307/2991799
Escofier, B., & Pagès, J. (1992). Análisis factoriales simples y múltiples: objetivos, metodos e interpretaciones. Servicio editorial Universidad del País Vasco.
Fergusson, L., Robinson, J. A., Torvik, R., & Vargas, J. F. (2014). The Need for Enemies. The Economic Journal, 126(593), 1018-1054. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecoj.12174
Ferrari, S. L., Espinheira, P. L., & Cribari - Neto, F. (2011). Diagnostic Tools in Beta Regression with Varying Dispersion. Statistica Neerlandica, 65(3), 337-351. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9574.2011.00488.x
Ferrari, S., & Cribari-Neto, F. (2004). Beta Regression Modeling Rates and Proportions. Journal of Applied Statistics, 31, 799-815. https://doi.org/10.1080/0266476042000214501
Gallego, J. (2018a). Civil Conflict and Voting Behavior: Evidence from Colombia. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 35(6), 601-621. https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894218788362
Gallego, J. (2018b). Natural disasters and clientelism: The case of floods and landslides in Colombia. Electoral Studies, 55, 73-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2018.08.001
Gimpel, J. G., & Schuknecht, J. E. (2002). Political and Demographic Foundations for Sectionalism in State Politics the Connecticut Case. American Politics Research, 30(2), 193¬-214. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X02030002004
Giraldo, F., & Muñoz, P. (2014). Partidos políticos en Colombia: Evolución y perspectiva. En H. Gehring, (ed.), Fundacion Konrad Adenauer -KAS-. https://www.kas.de/c/document_library/get_file?uuid=696741a6-8eb3-0558-d773-1e7859ca898e&groupId=252038
Glasgow, G., & Alvarez, R. M. (2005). Voting Behavior and The Electoral Context of Government Formation. Electoral Studies, 24(2), 245-264. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2004.05.003
Golosov, G. V. (2006). The Structure of Party Alternatives and Voter Choice in Russia Evidence from the 2003-2004 Regional Legislative Elections. Party Politics, 12(6), 707-725. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068806068597
Goodin, R. E., & Klingemann, H.-D. (2001). Nuevo manual de ciencia política (Vol. 165). AKAL.
Jones, K., Johnston, R. J., & Pattie, C. J. (1992). People, Places and Regions: Exploring the Use of Multi-Level Modelling in the Analysis of Electoral Data. British Journal of Political Science, 22(3), 343-380. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123400006426
Jorgensen, B. (1997). Proper Dispersion Models. Brazilian Journal of Probability and Statistics, 11, (2), 89-128. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43600934
Klesner, J. L. (2005). Electoral Competition and The New Party System in Mexico. Latin American Politics and Society, 47(2), 103-142. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2005.tb00311.x
Krause, S., & Méndez, F. (2009). Corruption and elections: An empirical study for Cross Section of Countries. Economics y Politics, 21(2), 179-200. https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecopol/v21y2009i2p179-200.html
Krehbiel, F. (1916). Geographic Influences in British Elections. Geographical Review, 2(6), 419-432. https://doi.org/10.2307/207512
Kuran, T. (1989). Sparks and Prairie Fires: A Theory of Unanticipated Political Revolution. Public Choice, 61(1), 41-74. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00116762
Lebart, L., Piron, M., & Morineau, A. (2006). Statisitique exploratoire multidimensionnelle. visualisation et inference en fouilles de donnees. Dunod.
Leigh, A., & Wolfers, J. (2006). Competing approaches to Forecasting Elections: Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets [NBER working paper No.12053]. National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w12053/w12053.pdf
Lincoln, A., & Prior, R. (1971). An Application of Principal Components Analysis to Voting in Scottish Municipal Elections 1967-9. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 4, 77-88. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2986987?casa_token=u1rooypGcWUAAAAA%3A8ogxbc4QLrWLqPonlRgwzkZcoN4TFoBWPfrLlVtDqnRyP32sOpyuz-p7VfcjZR4-2qeQsVuSUVCowbnkSoFUBS4kJXuQ6q6oEa8BNy-1PWPjA2F9pm0C&seq=1
Lupia, A. (1994). The Effect of Information on Voting Behavior and Electoral Out-Comes: An Experimental Study of Direct Legislation. Public Choice, 78(1), 65-86. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01053366
Mainwaring, S., & Zoco, E. (2007). Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Interparty Competition Electoral Volatility in Old and New Democracies. Party politics, 13(2), 155-178. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354068807073852
Marín-Jaramillo, M. (2014). Descripción de la evolución del comportamiento electoral mediante métodos en ejes principales [tesis de maestría, Universidad Nacional]. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/54398
Markus, G. B., & Converse, P. E. (1979). A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice. American Political Science Review, 73(04), 1055-1070. https://doi.org/10.2307/1953989
Montecinos, E. (2007). Análisis del comportamiento electoral: De la elección racional a la teoría de redes. Revista de Ciencias Sociales, 13(1), 9-22. http://ve.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1315-95182007000100002
Nadeau, R., & Blais, A. (1993). Explaining Election Outcomes in Canada: Economy and Politics. Canadian Journal of Political Science, 26(4), 775-790. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0008423900000470
Ordeshook, P. C., & Shvetsova, O. V. (1994). Ethnic Heterogeneity, District Magnitude, and The Number of Parties. American Journal of Political Science, 100-123. https://doi.org/10.2307/2111337
Paap, R., Nierop, E. van, Van Heerde, H. J., Wedel, M., Franses, P. H., & Alsem, K. J. (2005). Consideration Sets, Intentions and The Inclusion of Don’t Know in a Two-Stage Model for Voter Choice. International Journal of Forecasting, 21(1), 53-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2004.02.004
Pacheco, P., & Bautista, L. (1989). Análisis de la evolución del comportamiento electoral departamental en los últimos años: aplicación de los métodos factoriales al estudio de series temporales cortas. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 19, 94-112. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/9938
Paolino, P. (2005). Democratization, Divided Government and the 2001 Taiwanese Legislative Yuan Elections. Journal of Asian and African Studies, 40(1-2), 125-147. https://doi.org/10.1177/0021909605052948
Pardo, C., & Del Campo, P. (2007). Combinación de métodos factoriales y de análisis de conglomerados en R: el paquete FactoClass. Revista Colombiana de Estadística, 30(2), 231 - 245. https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/estad/article/view/29478
Pattie, C., Dorling, D., & Johnston, R. (1997). The Electoral Geography of Recession: Local Economic Conditions, Public Perceptions and The Economic Vote in the 1992 British General Election. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 22 (2), 147-161. https://www.jstor.org/stable/622306
Prescott, J. (1959). The Function and Methods of Electoral Geography. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 49(3), 296-304. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.1959.tb01615.x
Rodrigues, P., & Lima, A. (2009). Analysis of an European Union Election Using Principal Component Analysis. Statistical Papers, 50, 895-904. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00362-009-0264-2
Rozo, S., & Vargas, J. F. (2019). Brother or Invaders? How Crisis-Driven Migrants Shape Voting Behavior [Lacea working paper No. 0014]. http://vox.lacea.org/files/Working_Papers/lacea_wps_0014_rozo_vargas.pdf
Sass, T. R. (2000). The Determinants of Hispanic Representation in Municipal Government. Southern Economic Journal, 66 (3), 609-630. https://doi.org/10.2307/1061428
Soto-Zazueta, I. M., & Cortez, W. W. (2012). El papel de la educación sobre la competencia política en México: Un análisis a nivel estatal, 1980-2009. Política y gobierno, 19(2), 243-281. http://www.scielo.org.mx/scielo.php?pid=S1665-20372012000200003&script=sci_abstract
van der Brug, W., van der Ejik, C., & Franklin, M. (2003, marzo). Designs for the Empirical Analysis of Electoral Preferences, Utilities and Choice [ponencia]. Workshops of the European Consortium for Political Research, Edinburgh. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.6.9882&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Weintraub, M., Vargas, J. F., & Flores, T. E. (2015). Vote Choice and Legacies of Violence: Evidence from the 2014 Colombian Presidential Elections. Research & Politics, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.1177/2053168015573348
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2022 Luis Eduardo Sandoval-Garrido, Margarita Marín-Jaramillo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
Este sitio web, por Universidad de Antioquia, está licenciado bajo una Creative Commons Attribution License.
Los autores que publiquen en esta revista aceptan que conservan los derechos de autor y ceden a la revista el derecho de la primera publicación, con el trabajo registrado con una Licencia de Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual de Creative Commons, que permite a terceros utilizar lo publicado siempre que mencionen su autoría y a la publicación original en esta revista.
Los autores pueden realizar acuerdos contractuales independientes y adicionales para la distribución no exclusiva de la versión del trabajo publicada en la revista (por ejemplo, incluirla en un repositorio institucional o publicarla en un libro) siempre que sea con fines no comerciales y se reconozca de manera clara y explícita que el artículo ha sido originalmente publicado en esta revista.
Se permite y recomienda a los autores publicar sus artículos en Internet (por ejemplo, en páginas institucionales o personales), ya que puede conducir a intercambios provechosos y a una mayor difusión y citación de los trabajos publicados.
