Editorial

Carlos Andrés Vasco-Correa — Thu, 26 Jun 2025 00:00:00 -0500

This editorial analyzes the collapse of the natural gas subsidy scheme in Colombia, whose fiscal burden grew by 642% between 2005 and 2024. The crisis rests on two pillars: the financial one, aggravated by costly gas imports , and the deep social inequity of its design. The current stratification system is anachronistic and creates "inclusion errors," as about 81% of subsidies benefit non-poor households. Although transitioning to a direct targeting model via Sisbén is an urgent solution proposed in the National Development Plan , the author argues it is an intermediate step. The strategic debate should focus on a deeper transformation: a residential energy transition that replaces fossil fuels with clean technologies , aiming for a policy that is fiscally sustainable and socially just.

Predicting Formality in Micro and Small Enterprises in Peru: A Model Based on Structural and Strategic Factors

Dra. Raquel Chafloque-Céspedes, Dra. Lorena Espina-Romero — Mon, 10 Nov 2025 00:00:00 -0500

Business informality represents a structural challenge in emerging economies, limiting productivity, access to credit, and the inclusion of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in formal networks. This study develops a predictive model to estimate the probability of formality in Peruvian MSEs, using data from the V National Economic Census 2022. With a sample of 29,950 companies, binary logistics regression was applied considering structural variables (legal organization, size, sector, location, ownership of the premises) and strategic variables (sales, production, remuneration). The results reveal that larger companies, constituted as legal entities, with greater production and operating in rented premises have a higher probability of formality. On the other hand, high levels of sales are not necessarily associated with formalization, which suggests deliberate strategies of regulatory evasion. The model showed an accuracy of 74.9% and an acceptable discriminative capacity (AUC = 0.772). These findings offer a useful tool to focus public policies on segments with a higher risk of informality. It is recommended to expand the analysis with longitudinal data and qualitative variables to better capture the complexity of the phenomenon.

Lecturas de Economia

Editorial

Predicting Formality in Micro and Small Enterprises in Peru: A Model Based on Structural and Strategic Factors