El impacto de China sobre América Latina en el mercado de Estados Unidos, un análisis de causalidad
Palabras clave:
comercio internacional, casualidad, comercio intraindustrial e interindustrialResumen
La irrupción de China en el comercio internacional ha intensificado la competencia a nivel global poniendo en riesgo el posicionamiento que las economías latinoamericanas han logrado en el mercado de sus principales socios comerciales y en consecuencia su anhelo de desarrollo a través de la constitución de un motor exportador. Por tal motivo, el presente estudio analiza si existe algún efecto de las exportaciones chinas sobre el intercambio que realizan los principales países de América Latina con los Estados Unidos. Inicialmente se estudian los índices de comercio intraindustrial para posteriormente construir vectores autorregresivos y de corrección de error a partir de los cuales determinar si hay efectos negativos que señalen algún desplazamiento de China sobre las economías en mención. Los resultados sugieren que México es la nación más perjudicada por la competencia China, mientras que las demás naciones se posicionan como proveedores de materias primas
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