Determinantes de los precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas. El papel de los inventarios y de los factores macroeconómicos (1960-2010)

Autores/as

  • Luis Lanteri Universidad Nacional el Rosario

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n77a14774

Palabras clave:

precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas, inventarios, factores macroeconómicos, modelos de VAR estructural

Resumen


En los últimos años, se ha observado un extraordinario incremento en los precios internacionales de las materias primas, como los combustibles fósiles (petróleo) y los productos agropecuarios. Este trabajo analiza el comportamiento de los precios reales de las principales materias primas agrícolas (trigo, maíz, soja y arroz), utilizando modelos de SVAR, con restricciones de corto plazo, y datos anuales que abarcan el período 1960-2010. Los resultados sugieren que los precios de estas materias primas se incrementan ante mejoras en el crecimiento industrial, políticas monetarias expansivas, depreciación del dólar y reducción de inventarios. Hay una relación inversa entre la razón inventarios/consumo y los precios reales de los granos.

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Biografía del autor/a

Luis Lanteri, Universidad Nacional el Rosario

Economista. Docente de la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Estadística de la Universidad Nacional el Rosario.

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Publicado

2013-03-07

Cómo citar

Lanteri, L. (2013). Determinantes de los precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas. El papel de los inventarios y de los factores macroeconómicos (1960-2010). Lecturas De Economía, (77), 189–217. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n77a14774

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