Determinantes de los precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas. El papel de los inventarios y de los factores macroeconómicos (1960-2010)

  • Luis Lanteri Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Estadística de la Universidad Nacional el Rosario

Resumen

Determinantes de los precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas. El papel de los inventarios y de los factores macroeconómicos (1960-2010)

Resumen: En los últimos años, se ha observado un extraordinario incremento en los precios internacionales de las materias primas, como los combustibles fósiles (petróleo) y los productos agropecuarios. Este trabajo analiza el comportamiento de los precios reales de las principales materias primas agrícolas (trigo, maíz, soja y arroz), utilizando modelos de SVAR, con restricciones de corto plazo, y datos anuales que abarcan el período 1960-2010. Los resultados sugieren que los precios de estas materias primas se incrementan ante mejoras en el crecimiento industrial, políticas monetarias expansivas, depreciación del dólar y reducción de inventarios. Hay una relación inversa entre la razón inventarios/consumo y los precios reales de los granos.

Palabras clave: precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas, inventarios, factores macroeconómicos, modelos de VAR estructural. Clasificación JEL: E37, Q11

 

Determinants of real prices of agricultural commodities. The role of inventories and macroeconomic factors (1960-2010)

Abstract: In recent years, there has been an extraordinary increase in international commodity prices, such as fossil fuels (oil) and agricultural products. This paper analyzes the behavior of real prices of major agricultural commodities (wheat, corn, soybeans and rice) using SVAR models, with short-term restrictions, and annual data covering the period 1960-2010. The results suggest that the prices of these commodities increase with improvements in industrial growth, easy monetary policy, dollar depreciation, and inventory reductions. There is an inverse relation between the ratios inventories/consumption and the real prices of grains.

Keywords: real prices of agricultural commodities, inventories, macroeconomic factors, structural VAR models. JEL classification: E37, Q11

 

Les déterminants des prix réels des produits agricoles : Le rôle des stocks et des facteurs macro- économiques (1960-2010)

Résumé: Ces dernières années nous avons constaté une augmentation remarquable des prix internationaux des matières premières, telles que les combustibles fossiles (pétrole) et les produits agricoles. Cet article analyse le comportement des prix réels des principaux produits agricoles (blé, maïs, soja et riz), à travers utilisation des modèles SVAR avec contraintes à court terme et considérant des données annuelles pour la période 1960-2010. Les résultats montrent que les prix de ces matières premières augmentent avec l’amélioration de la croissance industrielle, avec une politique monétaire expansive, avec la dépréciation du dollar et avec la réduction des stocks. Nous montrons également qu’il existe un rapport inverse entre le ratio stocks/consommation et les prix réels des céréales.

Mots-clés: prix réels des matières premières agricoles, stocks, facteurs macro-économiques, modèles VAR structurels. Classification JEL: E37, Q11

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Publicado
2013-03-07
Cómo citar
Lanteri, L. (2013). Determinantes de los precios reales de las materias primas agrícolas. El papel de los inventarios y de los factores macroeconómicos (1960-2010). Lecturas De Economía, (77), 189-217. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n0a14774
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