La percepción de seguridad en la demanda de transporte de la integración bicicletametro en Bogotá, Colombia

Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

doi:10.17533/udea.le.n84a05

Autores/as

Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n84a05

Palabras clave:

modelos integrados de elección y variables latentes, percepción de seguridad, experimentos de elección discreta, integración bicicleta-metro

Resumen

Se plantea como hipótesis que la percepción de seguridad tiene un efecto significativo en la predicción de la demanda por la integración bicicleta-metro. Para demostrar dicha hipótesis, se calibraron dos modelos: un modelo logit mixto y un modelo integrado de elección y variable latente, cuya estimación se hizo en forma simultánea por máxima verosimilitud simulada. La estimación empleó datos de una muestra tomada en la localidad de Kennedy, que no solo es la más poblada de Bogotá sino que será el punto de partida de la primera línea del metro. La evidencia empírica respaldó la hipótesis planteada, encontrándose que el modelo mixto sobreestima la demanda, especialmente en los escenarios que no consideraron la provisión de carriles exclusivos para bicicleta. Se encontraron, además, diferencias significativas en la percepción de seguridad de la bicicleta para usuarios de motocicletas, taxis y servicio público, y en general para los individuos según el nivel de ingreso.

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Biografía del autor/a

Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia

Profesor asociado, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia

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