La perception de sécurité en tant que déterminant de la demande de transport public : le cas du système de transport intégré entre le mètre et le vélo pour la ville de Bogota, Colombie
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n84a05Mots-clés :
modèle intégré de choix à variable latente, perception de sécurité, , expériences de choix discrets, système de transport intégré mètre-véloRésumé
La perception de sécurité a un effet significatif pour prédire la demande de transport en commun intégré entre le mètre et le vélo. À fin de confirmer cette hypothèse, nous estimons deux modèles : un modèle logit mixte et un modèle intégré de choix à variable latente, dont l'estimation a été faite simultanément par la méthode de maximum de vraisemblance simulé. L'estimation utilise les données issues d’une enquête sur la population de l’arrondissement de Kennedy. Il s’agit de l’arrondissement le plus peuplé de la ville de Bogota et le point de départ de la première ligne de métro qui sera construit dans la ville. Les résultats statistiques confirment l’hypothèse de départ. Tout en supposant qu’il n’existe pas des pistes cyclables, nous montrons que le modèle logit mixte surestime
la demande de transport. Nous montrons également qu’il existe des différences significatives dans perception de sécurité en ce qui concerne l’utilisation du vélo de la part de différents types d’usagers (ceux qui utilisent la motocyclette, le taxi et les transports en commun), selon leur niveau de revenu.
Téléchargements
Références
ADAMS, John (1998). “Evaluating the effectiveness of road safety measures”, Traffic Engineering and Control, Vol. 21, Issue 6, pp. 344–352.
ALCALDÍA MAYOR DE BOGOTÁ (2012). En bicicleta La Cicloruta, ‘un estilo de vida’ en Bogotá. Recuperado de: http://www.movilidadbogota.gov.co/?sec=8 (10 de febrero de 2012).
ALCALDÍA MAYOR DE BOGOTÁ (2013). “Capítulo para la caracterización de la demanda de transporte del SITP con la inclusión de nuevos proyectos de infraestructura”, Documento técnico. Subgerencia Técnica y de Servicios, Alcaldía Mayor de Bogotá.
ARELLANA, Julián (2012). Modelos de elección de hora de inicio de viajes, Tesis doctoral, Pontificia Universidad de Chile, Chile.
BEN-AKIVA, Moshe; MCFADDEN, Daniel; GÄRLING, Tommy; GOPINATH, Dinesh; WALKER, Joan; BOLDUC, Denis; BÖRSCH-SUPAN, Axel; DELQUIÁ, Philippe; LARICHEV, Oleg; MORIKAWA, Taka; POLYDOROPOULOU, Amalia & RAO, Vithala (1999). “Extended Framework for Modeling Choice Behavior”, Marketing Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 3, pp. 187-203.
BEN-AKIVA, Moshe; MCFADDEN, Daniel; TRAIN, Kenneth; WALKER, Joan; BHAT, Chandra; BIERLAIRE, Michel; BOLDUC, Denis; BOERSCH-SUPAN, Axel; BROWNSTONE, David; BUNCH, David S.; DALY, Andrew; DE PALMA, Andre; GOPINATH, Dinesh; KARLSTROM, Anders & MUNIZAGA, Marcela A. (2002). “Hybrid Choice Models: Progress and Challenges”, Marketing Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 3, pp. 163-175.
BOLDUC, Denis; BEN-AKIVA, Moshe; WALKER, Joan & MICHAUD, Alain (2005). “Hybrid choice models with logit kernel: applicability to large scale models”. In: M. Lee-Gosselin, S. Doherty (Eds.), Integrated Land-Use and Transportation Models: Behavioural Foundations (pp. 275-302). Elsevier: Oxford.
BOLDUC, Denis; BOUCHER, Nathalie & ÁLVAREZ-DAZIANO, Ricardo (2008). “Hybrid choice modelling of new technologies for car choice in Canada”, Transportation Research Record, Vol. 2082, pp. 63-71.
BROWN, David & RYAN, Lisa (2011). “Comparative analysis of evaluation techniques for transport policies”, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, Vol. 31, Issue 3, April 2011, pp. 226-233.
CHATAWAY, Elijah Steven; KAPLAN, Sigal; NIELSEN, Thomas Alexander & PRATO, Carlo Giacomo (2014). “Safety perceptions and reported behavior related to cycling in mixed traffic: A comparison between Brisbane and Copenhagen”, Transportation Research F, Vol. 23, pp. 32-43.
CHENG, Yung-Hsiang & LIU, Kuo-Chu (2012). “Evaluating bicycle-transit users’ perceptions of intermodal inconvenience”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 46, Issue10, pp. 1690-1706.
COMENDADOR, Julio; MONZÓN, Andrés & LÓPEZ-LAMBAS, María Eugenia (2014). “A General Framework to Testing the Effect of Transport Policy Measures to Achieve a Modal Shift: A Sequential Hybrid Model”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 162, pp. 243-252.
DALY, Andrew; HESS, Stephane; PATRUNI, Bhanu; POTOGLOU, Dimitris & ROHR, Charlene (2012). “Using ordered attitudinal indicators in a latent variable choice model: a study of the impact of security on rail travel behavior”, Transportation, Vol. 39, pp. 267–297.
DAZIANO, Ricardo A. (2012). “Taking account of the role of safety on vehicle choice using a new generation of discrete choice models”, Safety Science, Vol. 50, Issue 1, pp. 103-112.
EWING, Reid; SCHROEER, William & GREENE, William (2004). “School location and students travel: analyses of factors affecting mode choice”, Transportation Research Record, Vol. 1895, pp. 55–63.
FERNÁNDEZ-HEREDIA, Álvaro; JARA-DÍAZ, Sergio & MONZÓN, Andrés (2014). “Modelling bicycle use intention: the role of perceptions”, Transportation. Article in Press.
GAUDRY, Marc. J.; JARA-DÍAZ, Sergio R. & ORTÚZAR, Juan de Dios (1989). “Value of time sensitivity to model specification”, Transportation Research Part B, Vol. 23, Issue 2, pp. 151-158.
GIVONI, Moshe & RIETVELD, Piet (2007). “The access journey to the railway station and its role in passengers’ satisfaction with rail travel”, Transport Policy, Vol. 14, Issue 5, pp. 357–365.
HABIB, Khandker Nurul; MANN, Jenessa; MAHMOUD, Mohamed & WEISS, Adam (2014). “Synopsis of bicycle demand in the City of Toronto: Investigating the effects of perception, consciousness and comfortability on the purpose of biking and bike ownership”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 70, pp. 67-80.
HAMED, M. M. & AL ROUSAN, Taleb M. (1998). “The impact of perceived risk on urban commuters’ route choice”, Road and Transport Research, Vol. 7, Issue 4, pp. 46–63.
JOHANSSON, Maria (2006). “Environment and parental factors as determinants of mode for children's leisure travel”, Journal of Environmental Psychology, Vol. 26, Issue 2, pp. 156–169.
KIDOKORO, Yukihiro (2006). “Benefit estimation of transport projects – A representative consumer approach”, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 40, Issue 7, pp. 521-542.
KIM, Jinhee; RASOULI, Soora & TIMMERMANS, Harry (2014). “Hybrid Choice Models: Principles and Recent Progress Incorporating Social Influence and Nonlinear Utility Functions”, Procedia Environmental Sciences, Vol. 22, pp. 20-34.
KOPPELMAN, Frank S. & PAS, Eric I. (1980). “Travel choice behaviour: models of perceptions, feelings, preference, and choice”, Transp. Res. Rec., Vol. 765, pp. 26–33.
LAKSHMANAN, T.R.; NIJKAMP, Peter; RIETVELD, Piet & VERHOEF, Erik Teodoor (2001). “Benefits and costs of transport Classification, methodologies and policies”, Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 80, Issue 2, pp. 139-164.
MALDONADO-HINAREJOS, Rafael; SIVAKUMAR, Aruna & POLAK, John W. (2014). “Exploring the role of individual attitudes and perceptions in predicting the demand for cycling: a hybrid choice modelling approach”, Transportation, Vol. 41, Issue 6, pp. 1287-1304.
MANNERING, Fred L. & BHAT, Chandra (2014). “Analytic methods in accident research: Methodological frontier and future directions”, Analytic Methods in Accident Research, Vol. 1, pp. 1-22.
MARTENS, Karel (2004). “The bicycle as a feedering mode: experiences from three European countries”, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, Vol. 9, Issue 4, pp. 281-294.
MÁRQUEZ, Luis (2013). “Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto”, Lecturas de Economía, Vol. 78, pp. 45-72.
MÁRQUEZ, Luis; CANTILLO, Víctor & ARELLANA, Julián (2014). “How are comfort and safety perceived by inland waterway transport passengers?”, Transport Policy, Vol. 36, pp. 46-52.
MÁRQUEZ, Luis; CANTILLO, Víctor & ARELLANA, Julián (2015). “Mobile phone use while driving: A hybrid modeling approach”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 78, pp. 73-80.
MCFADDEN, Daniel (2013). “The new science of pleasure: consumer choice behavior and the measurement of well-being”. Retrieved from: http://elsa.berkeley.edu/wp/mcfadden122812.pdf
ORY, David T. & MOKHTARIAN, Patricia L. (2005). “When is getting there half of the fun? Modelling the liking for travel”, Transportation Research A, Policy and Practice, Vol. 39, Issue 2, pp. 97-123.
PARDO, Carlos Felipe; CAVIEDES, Álvaro & CALDERÓN, Patricia (2013). Estacionamientos para bicicletas. Guía de elección, servicio, integración y reducción de emisiones. Bogotá: Despacio & ITDP.
PAULSSEN, Marcel; TEMME, Dirk; VIJ, Akshay & WALKER, Joan (2014). “Values, Attitudes and Travel Behavior: A Hierarchical Latent Variable Mixed Logit Model of Travel Mode Choice”, Transportation, Vol. 41, Issue 4, pp. 873-888.
PUCHER, John & BUEHLER, Ralph (2009). “Integrating Bicycling and Public Transport in North America”, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 79-104.
PUELLO, Lissy La Paix & GEURS, Karst (2015). “Modelling observed and unobserved factors in cycling to railway stations: Application to transit-oriented-developments in the Netherlands”, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, Vol. 15, Issue 1, pp. 27-50.
RIETVELD, Piet & DANIEL, Vanessa (2004). “Determinants of bicycle use: do municipal policies matter?”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 38, Issue7, pp. 531–550.
RUNGIE, Cam M.; COOTE, Leonard V. & LOUVIERE, Jordan J. (2012). “Latent variables in discrete choice experiments”, Journal of Choice Modelling, Vol. 5, Issue 3, pp. 145-156.
SAGARIS, Lake & OLIVO, Héctor (2010). El Plan Maestro de Ciclo Rutas del Bicentenario. Santiago, Chile: Living City.
SANDERS, Rebecca L. (2015). “Perceived traffic risk for cyclists: The impact of near miss and collision experiences”, Accident Analysis & Prevention, Vol. 75, pp. 26-34.
SKINNER, Reinhard (2004). “City profile Bogotá”, Cities, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 73-81.
STEER DAVIES GLEAVE (2013). Formulación y estructuración de un plan estratégico para promover el uso de la bicicleta como medio de transporte cotidiano en grupos: informe poblacionales específicos. Autor: Bogotá.
SVENSSON, Åse & HYDÉN, Christer (2006). “Estimating the severity of safety related behavior”, Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 38, Issue 2, pp. 379–385.
TAM, Mei Ling; LAM, William H. K. & LO, Hing Po (2010). “Incorporating passenger perceived service quality in airport ground access mode choice model”, Transportmetrica, Vol. 6, Issue 1, pp. 3-17.
TARGA, Felipe; HUICI, Rodolfo; VÉLEZ, Jean Paul; DEAMBROSI, Sergio; JIMÉNEZ, Javier; IRIARTE, Sandra & VECCO, Caterina (2010). Urban services program for Bogotá, Institutional support for the integrated public transport system, (CO-L1076), Loan proposal, Document of the Inter-American Development Bank, Bogotá, 28 p.
TSIRIMPA, Athena; POLYDOROPOULOU, Amalia & ANTONIOU, Constantinus (2010). “Development of a Latent Variable Model to Capture the Impact of Risk Aversion on Travelers’ Switching Behavior”, Journal of Choice Modelling, Vol. 3, Issue 1, pp. 127-148.
VANDENBULCKE, Grégory; DUJARDIN, Claire; THOMAS, Isabelle; DE GUES, Bas; DEGRAEUWE, Bart; MEEUSEN, Romain & PANIS, Luc Int (2011). “Cycle commuting in Belgium: spatial determinants and ‘re-cycling’ strategies”, Transp. Res. Part A, Vol. 45, Issue 2, pp. 118–137.
VERMA, Philip. D.; LÓPEZ, José Segundo & PARDO, Carlos Felipe (2015). Bogotá 2014 Bicycle Account. Recuperado de: http://despacio.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Bicycle-Account-BOG-2014-0150109-LR.pdf
VREDIN JOHANSSON, Maria; HELDT, Tobias & JOHANSSON, Per (2006). “The effects of attitudes and personality traits on mode choice”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 40, Issue 6, pp. 507-525.
WALKER, Joan Leslie (2001). Extended discrete choice models: Integrated framework, flexible error structures, and latent variables, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
WALKER, Joan Leslie & BEN-AKIVA, Moshe (2002). “Generalized random utility model”, Math. Soc. Sci., Vol. 43, Issue 3, pp. 303–343.
YANG, Chen; WANG, Wei; LI, Zhibin & LU, Jian (2009). “Travel Mode Choice Based on Latent Variable Enriched Discrete Choice Model”, International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2009 (pp. 4372-4377).
YÁÑEZ, María F.; RAVEAU, Sebastián & ORTÚZAR, Juan de Dios (2010). “Inclusion of latent variables in Mixed Logit models: Modelling and forecasting”, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 44, Issue 9, pp. 744-753
Téléchargements
Publié-e
Comment citer
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
Cette page, par Universidad de Antioquia, est autorisée sous une Licence d'attribution Creative Commons.
Les auteurs qui publient avec cette revue acceptent de conserver les droits d'auteur et d'accorder le droit de première publication à la revue, l'article sous licence sous une licence Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike permettant à d'autres de le partager tant qu'ils reconnaissent sa paternité et sa publication originale dans ce journal.
Les auteurs peuvent conclure des accords contractuels supplémentaires et distincts pour la distribution non exclusive de la version publiée de la revue (par exemple, la publier dans un référentiel institutionnel ou la publier dans un livre), à condition que ces accords soient sans but lucratif et être reconnu comme la source originale de publication.
Les auteurs sont autorisés et encouragés à publier leurs articles en ligne (par exemple, dans des dépôts institutionnels ou sur leurs sites Web), car cela peut conduire à de précieux échanges ainsi qu'à une plus grande citation des travaux publiés.
