Los precios del oro: Análisis de su comportamiento cíclico

Martha Gutiérrez; Giovanni Franco; Carlos Campuzano

doi:10.17533/udea.le.n79a4

Authors

Martha Gutiérrez ISAGEN S.A. E.S.P
Giovanni Franco National University of Colombia
Carlos Campuzano National University of Colombia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n79a4

Keywords:

Gold cycle, DJIA/GF ratio, Fourier analysis, neural network forecast

Abstract

Gold is a commodity that is seen as a safe haven when a financial crisis strikes, but when stock markets are prosperous, these are more attractive investment alternatives, and so the gold cycle goes on and on. The DJIA/GF (Dow Jones Industrial Average and Gold Fix ratio) is chosen to establish the evolution of gold prices in relation to the NYSE. This paper has two goals: to prove that the DJIA/GF ratio is strongly cyclical by using Fourier analysis and to set a predictive neural networks model to forecast the behavior of this ratio during 2011-2020. To this end, business cycle events like the Great Depression along with the 1970s crisis, and the 1950s boom along with the world economic recovery of the 1990s are contrasted in light of the mentioned ratio. Gold prices are found to evolve cyclically with a dominant period of 37 years and are mainly affected by energy prices, financial markets and macroeconomic indicators.

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Author Biographies

Martha Gutiérrez, ISAGEN S.A. E.S.P

Energy analyst, Negotiation of Energy Solutions, ISAGEN S.A. E.S.P

Giovanni Franco, National University of Colombia

School of Materials Engineering, National University of Colombia. Ph.D(c), Mine Planning Group Research.

Carlos Campuzano, National University of Colombia

School of Materials Engineering, Mine Planning Group Research, National University of Colombia.

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