Forecasting Water Buffalo Milk Production Dynamics in Major Producing Nations (2024–2028)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rccp.e362590Keywords:
ARIMA, forecasting, leading countries, milk production, water buffaloAbstract
Background: Water buffalo milk production increased from 17.86 million tons in 1961 to 150.34 million tons in 2023. India, Pakistan, China, Egypt, and Nepal accounted for 96% and 99% of the buffalo milk production in the world, respectively, in the same period. Accurate forecasting of water buffalo milk production is crucial for planning, policy-making, and ensuring sustainable supply to meet the growing demand for dairy products. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the current production levels of the top five leading nations in the world in terms of water buffalo milk production, as well as the total production of buffalo milk worldwide, in the years 2024–2028. Methods: To do this, we used ARIMA models in the SAS statistical program to make the most appropriate estimates. We analyzed FAOSTAT data from 1961 to 2023 to identify appropriate models and generate projections. Results: From 2024 to 2028, we estimated the world water buffalo milk production as 153.05, 154.07, 158.24, 162.12, and 164.11 million tons, with the leading countries accounting for 99.20% of the average annual production of 158.32 million tons in 2028. Conclusion: Based on the findings of this study the share of India, Pakistan, China, Egypt, and Nepal which are the leading countries in world’s water buffalo milk production is estimated to be 69.88%, 25.46%, 2.11%, 0.87%, and 0.87%, between 2024-2028 years.
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