Forecasting Water Buffalo Milk Production Dynamics in Major Producing Nations (2024–2028)

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir; Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu; Duygu Tosun

doi:10.17533/udea.rccp.e362590

Autores/as

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir Atatürk University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3035-7695
Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu Ataturk University
Duygu Tosun Ataturk University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1292-6308

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rccp.e362590

Palabras clave:

ARIMA, búfala, países líderes, producción de leche, pronóstico

Resumen

Antecedentes: La producción de leche de búfala aumentó de 17,86 millones de toneladas en 1961 a 150,34 millones de toneladas en 2023. India, Pakistán, China, Egipto y Nepal representaron el 96 % de la producción mundial de leche de búfala en 1961 y el 99 % en 2023, respectivamente. La previsión precisa de la producción de leche de búfala es crucial para la planificación, la formulación de políticas y la garantía de un suministro sostenible que satisfaga la creciente demanda de productos lácteos. Objetivo: determinar los niveles actuales de producción de las cinco principales naciones del mundo en términos de producción de leche de búfala, así como la producción total de leche de búfala a nivel mundial, en el período 2024-2028. Métodos: Para ello, se utilizaron modelos ARIMA en el programa estadístico SAS para realizar las estimaciones más adecuadas. Se analizaron los datos de FAOSTAT de 1961 a 2023 para identificar modelos adecuados y generar proyecciones. Resultados: De 2024 a 2028, estimamos la producción mundial de leche de búfala en 153,05, 154,07, 158,24, 162,12 y 164,11 millones de toneladas, y los países líderes representaron el 99,20 % de la producción anual promedio de 158,32 millones de toneladas en 2028. Conclusión: Según los hallazgos de este estudio, se estima que la participación de India, Pakistán, China, Egipto y Nepal, países líderes en la producción mundial de leche de búfala, será del 69,88 %, 25,46 %, 2,11 %, 0,87 % y 0,87 %, respectivamente, entre 2024 y 2028.

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Biografía del autor/a

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir, Atatürk University

Atatürk University, Department of Animal Science, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu, Ataturk University

Atatürk University, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

Duygu Tosun, Ataturk University

Atatürk University, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

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