Forecasting Water Buffalo Milk Production Dynamics in Major Producing Nations (2024–2028)

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir; Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu; Duygu Tosun

doi:10.17533/udea.rccp.e362590

Autores

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir Ataturk University https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3035-7695
Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu Ataturk University
Duygu Tosun Ataturk University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1292-6308

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rccp.e362590

Palavras-chave:

ARIMA, búfala, principais países, produção de leite, prognóstico

Resumo

Antecedentes: A produção de leite de búfala aumentou de 17,86 milhões de toneladas em 1961 para 150,34 milhões de toneladas em 2023. Índia, Paquistão, China, Egito e Nepal foram responsáveis por 96% da produção mundial de leite de búfala em 1961 e 99% em 2023, respectivamente. A previsão precisa da produção de leite de búfala é crucial para o planejamento, a formulação de políticas e para garantir um fornecimento sustentável que atenda à crescente demanda por produtos lácteos. Objetivo: Determinar os níveis atuais de produção nos cinco maiores países produtores de leite de búfala do mundo, bem como a produção mundial total de leite de búfala, para o período de 2024 a 2028. Métodos: Modelos ARIMA foram utilizados no software estatístico SAS para obter as estimativas mais adequadas. Dados da FAOSTAT de 1961 a 2023 foram analisados para identificar modelos adequados e gerar projeções. Resultados: De 2024 a 2028, estimamos a produção global de leite de búfala em 153,05, 154,07, 158,24, 162,12 e 164,11 milhões de toneladas, com os principais países respondendo por 99,20% da produção média anual de 158,32 milhões de toneladas em 2028. Conclusão: Com base nas descobertas deste estudo, as participações estimadas da Índia, Paquistão, China, Egito e Nepal, os principais países na produção global de leite de búfala, serão de 69,88%, 25,46%, 2,11%, 0,87% e 0,87%, respectivamente, entre 2024 e 2028.

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Biografia do Autor

Veysel-Fatih Özdemir, Ataturk University

Atatürk University, Department of Animal Science, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

Ahmet-Semih Uzundumlu, Ataturk University

Atatürk University, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

Duygu Tosun, Ataturk University

Atatürk University, Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, 25240, Erzurum, Türkiye

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