Daily river level forecast based on the development of an artificial neural network: case study in La Virginia - Risaralda


  • Tito Morales-Pinzón Technological University of Pereira https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3156-2252
  • Juan David Céspedes-Restrepo Technological University of Pereira
  • Manuel Tiberio Flórez-Calderón Technological University of Pereira




flood forecasting, flood risk, artificial neural networks


The municipality of La Virginia (Risaralda, Colombia) is constantly affected by fl oods that originate from increased water levels in the Cauca River. Disaster relief agencies do not currently have adequate monitoring systems to identify potential overfl ow events in time-series observations to prevent fl ood damage to homes or injury to the general population. In this paper, various simulation models are proposed for the prediction of fl ooding that contributes as a technical tool to the development and implementation of early warning systems to improve the responsiveness of disaster relief agencies. The models, which are based on artifi cial neural networks, take hydroclimatological information from different stations along the Cauca River Basin, and the trend indicates the average daily level of the river within the next 48 hours. This methodology can be easily applied to other urban areas exposed to fl ood risks in developing countries.

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Author Biographies

Tito Morales-Pinzón, Technological University of Pereira

Territorial Environmental Management Research Group, Faculty of Environmental Sciences.

Juan David Céspedes-Restrepo, Technological University of Pereira

Territorial Environmental Management Research Group, Faculty of Environmental Sciences.

Manuel Tiberio Flórez-Calderón, Technological University of Pereira

Territorial Environmental Management Research Group, Faculty of Environmental Sciences.


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How to Cite

Morales-Pinzón, T., Céspedes-Restrepo, J. D., & Flórez-Calderón, M. T. (2015). Daily river level forecast based on the development of an artificial neural network: case study in La Virginia - Risaralda. Revista Facultad De Ingeniería Universidad De Antioquia, (76), 46–57. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.n76a06

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