Approaching the concepts of ecosystems resilience and stability through spatiotemporal system dynamics and agent-based modelling
We introduce a simplified ecohydrological model to quantitatively assess the resiliency and stability of ecosystems over long periods. The model couples a hydrological soil moisture balance with a set of spatiotemporal systems dynamics and agent-based algorithms to represent the interactions among several plant populations in a gridded area under different water, soil and temperature constraints. We characterize the plant populations by allometric rules (i.e., power laws for generational and reproductive times; linear approximations for water and temperature gains, losses and optimal values; and a set of intra and interspecific interaction rules based on high, optimal and low competition responses among the populations), that represent different plant phenotypes. We define the disturbances by a clearance of populations in an area within the model’s domain and calculate the resiliency and stability with simple indices to determine the ability of the ecosystem to recover from a disturbance. The indices evaluated on each population and over the structure of the entire ecosystem show how the populations respond differently to disturbances, following patterns similar to those expected in nature. The model can represent the spatial and temporal succession of the ecosystem after being disturbed, suggesting how the differences in the phenotypical characteristics of plant populations can be advantageous or disadvantageous for the ecosystem recovery.
C. S. Holling and L. H. Gunderson, “Resilience and adaptive cycles,” in Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington, USA: Island Press, 2016, 25-62.
A. S. Mori, “Resilience in the Studies of BiodiversityEcosystem Functioning,” Trends in ecology & evolution, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 87-89, 2016.
C. S. Holling, “Resilience and Stability of Ecological Systems,” Annual review of ecology and systematics, vol. 4, pp. 1-23, 1973.
T. Sasaki, T. Furukawa, Y. Iwasaki, M. Seto, and A. S. Mori, “Perspectives for ecosystem management based on ecosystem resilience and ecological thresholds against multiple and stochastic disturbances,” Ecological Indicators, vol. 57, pp. 395-408, 2015.
G. W. Kaine, and P. R. Tozer, “Stability, resilience and sustainability in pasture-based grazing systems,” Agricultural Systems, vol. 83, no. 1, pp. 27-48, 2005.
S. L. Pimm, “The complexity and stability of ecosystems,” Nature, vol. 307, pp. 321-326, 1984.
R. J. Standish et al., “Resilience in ecology: Abstraction, distraction, or where the action is?,” Biological Conservation, vol. 177, pp. 43-51, 2014.
C. S. Holling, “The resilience of terrestrial ecosystems: local surprise and global change,” Sustainable development of the biosphere, pp. 292-317, 1986.
C. Folke et al., “Regime Shifts, Resilience, and Biodiversity in Ecosystem Management,” Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, vol. 35, pp. 557-581, 2004.
C. Folke, “Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social-ecological systems analyses,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 253-267, 2006.
S. L. Cutter et al., “A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters,” Global Environmental Change, vol. 18, no. 4, pp. 598-606, 2008.
T. H. Oliver et al., “Biodiversity and Resilience of Ecosystem Functions,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 30, no. 11, pp. 673-684, 2015.
I. Washitani, “Plant conservation ecology for management and restoration of riparian habitats of lowland Japan,” Population Ecology, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 189-195, 2001.
T. Elmqvist et al., “Response diversity, ecosystem change, and resilience,” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, vol. 1, no. 9, pp. 488-494, 2003.
G. Peterson, C. R. Allen, and C. S. Holling, “Ecological Resilience, Biodiversity, and Scale,” Ecosystems, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 6-18, 1998.
I. D. Thompson et al., “Forest Biodiversity and the Delivery of Ecosystem Goods and Services: Translating Science into Policy,” BioScience, vol. 61, no. 12, pp. 972- 981, 2011.
D. Tilman, and J. A. Downing, “Biodiversity and stability in grasslands,” Nature, Vol 367, pp. 363-365.
I. Rodriguez, “Ecohydrology: A hydrologic perspective of climate‐soil‐vegetation dynamies,” Water Resources Research, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 3-9, 2000.
R. M. May, Stability and Complexity in Model Ecosystems, Vol 6. 2nd Ed. New Jersey, USA: Princeton, 2001.
M. Montefalcone, V. Parravicini, and C. N. Bianchi, "Quantification of Coastal Ecosystem Resilience," in Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science, 1st ed, E. Wolanski and D. McLusky (ed). Elsevier Inc., 2011, pp. 49-70.
D. L. Potts, T. E. Huxman, B. J. Enquist, J. F. Weltzin, and D. G. Williams, “Resilience and resistance of ecosystem functional response to a precipitation pulse in a semi‐arid grassland,” Journal of Ecology, vol. 94, no. 1, pp. 23-30, 2006.
A. E. Frazier, C. S. Renschler, and S. B. Miles, “Evaluating post-disaster ecosystem resilience using MODIS GPP data,” International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation, vol. 21, pp. 43-52, 2013.
D. N. Wear, and P. Bolstad, “Land-use Changes in Southern Appalachian Landscapes: Spatial Analysis and Forecast Evaluation,” Ecosystems, vol. 1, no. 6, pp. 575-594, 1998.
M. G. Turner, S. M. Pearson, P. Bolstad, and D. N. Wear, “Effects of land-cover change on spatial pattern of forest communities in the Southern Appalachian Mountains (USA),” Landscape Ecology, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 449-464, 2003.
J. Fischer et al., “Integrating resilience thinking and optimisation for conservation,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 24, no. 10, pp. 549-554, 2009.
D. D. Briske, S. D. Fuhlendorf, and F. E. Smeins, “A unified Framework for Assessment and Application of Ecological Thresholds,” Rangeland Ecology & Management, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 225-236, 2006.
K. N. Suding, and R. J. Hobbs, “Threshold models in restoration and conservation: a developing framework,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 24, no. 5, pp. 271-279, 2009.
A. Chakraborty, and B. L. Li, “Post-fire ecological succession: A theoretical modeling framework,” Acta Ecologica Sinica, vol. 29, no. 1, pp. 7-12, 2009.
R. E. Keane et al., “A classification of landscape fire succession models: spatial simulations of fire and vegetation dynamics,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 179, no. 1, pp. 3-27, 2004.
Á. Drégelyi, and L. Hufnagel, “Simulations of Theoretical Ecosystem Growth Model (TEGM) during various climate conditions,” Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 71-78, 2009.
S. E. Jørgensen, and B. D. Fath, “Examination of ecological networks,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 196, no. 3-4, pp. 283-288, 2006.
J. M. Baetens, and B. De Baets, “A Behavioral Analysis of Cellular Automata,” in International Conference on Parallel Computing Technologies, Nizhni Novgorod, Russia, 2015, pp. 123-134.
N. R. da Silva, P. V. der Weeën, B. De Baets, and O. M. Bruno, “Improved texture image classification through the use of a corrosion-inspired cellular automaton,” Neurocomputing, vol. 149, Part C, pp. 1560-1572, 2015.
C. W. Thornthwaite, “An approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate,” Geographical review, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 55-94, 1948.
J. Shukla, “Assessment of climate in Jharkhand: A precipitation and Evapotranspiration regime approach,” Int. J. Exp. Res. Rev, vol. 4, pp. 51-56, 2016.
G. de Souza Rolim, and L. E. de O., “Camargo, Köppen and Thornthwaite climate classification systems in defining climatical regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 36, no. 2, pp. 636-643, 2016.
C. J. Villa, E. Delgadillo, C. A. Mastachi, E. González, and R. S. Norma, “A Physically Based Runoff Model Analysis of the Querétaro River Basin,” Journal of Applied Mathematics, vol. 2014, pp. 1-12, 2014.
M. de Carvalho, et al., “Geostatistical improvements of evapotranspiration spatial information using satellite land surface and weather stations data,” Theoretical and applied climatology, vol. 113, no. 1-2, pp. 155-174, 2013.
A. J. McLane, C. Semeniuk, G. J. McDermid, and D. J. Marceau, “The role of agent-based models in wildlife ecology and management,” Ecological Modelling, vol. 222, no. 8, pp. 1544-1556, 2011.
J. Iriondo, M. Albert, L. Giménez Benavides, F. Domínguez Lozano, and A. Escudero, “Poblaciones en peligro: viabilidad demográfica de la flora vascular amenazada de España,” Dirección General de Medio Natural y Política Forestal (Ministerio de Medio Ambiente, y Medio Rural y Marino), Madrid, 2009.
W. A. Calder, “An allometric approach to population cycles of mammals,” Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 100, no. 2, pp. 275-282, 1983.
J. T. Bonner, Size and Cycle: An Essay on the Structure of Biology, 1st Ed. New Jersey, USA: Princeton University Press, 2015.
K. J. Niklas, and B. J. Enquist, “Invariant scaling relationships for interspecific plant biomass production rates and body size,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 98, no. 5, pp. 2922-2927, 2001.
W. Rawls, L. Ahuja, and D. Brakensiek, “Estimating soil hydraulic properties from soils data,” Indirect methods for estimating the hydraulic properties of unsaturated soils, vol. 6, 1992.
J. R. Phillips, “ZunZun.com Interactive 2-Dimensional and 3-Dimensional Data Modeling “ 2007.
D. Wolock, and G. McCabe, "Estimates of Runoff Using Water‐Balance and Atmospheric General Circulation Models," J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc, vol. 35, no. 6, pp. 1341-1350.
G. J. McCabe, and S. L. Markstrom, “A monthly WaterBalance Model Driven by a Graphical User Interface,” Science for a Changing World - USGS, Reston, Virginia, 2007.
S. P. Bonser, and L. W. Aarssen, “Interpreting reproductive allometry: individual strategies of allocation explain size-dependent reproduction in plant populations,” Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics, vol. 11, no. 1, pp. 31-40, 2009.
J. T. Bonner, “Size and cycle: an essay on the structure of biology,” 1965.
J. L. Harper, Population biology of plants, Vol 42, No 181: Academic Press, 1978.
P. E. Gundel, L. A. Garibaldi, M. A. Martínez, and C. M. Ghersa, “Trade-off between seed number and weight: Influence of a grass-endophyte symbiosis,” Basic and Applied Ecology, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 32-39, 2012.
K. Bohn, R. Pavlick, B. Reu, and A. Kleidon, “The strengths of r-and K-Selection Shape DiversityDisturbance Relationships,” PloS ONE, vol. 9, no. 4, pp. e95659, 2014.
L. W. Aarssen, and D. R. Taylor, “Fecundity Allocation in Herbaceous Plants,” Oikos, vol. 65, no. 2, pp. 225-232, 1992.
E. R. Pianka, “On r-and K-selection,” The American Naturalist, vol. 104, no. 940, pp. 592-597, 1970.
M. Begon, J. L. Harper, and C. R. Townsend, Ecology. Individuals, Populations and Communities, 3rd ed. Oxford, UK: Black-well Science, 1996.
L. W. Aarssen, “On size, fecundity and fitness in competing plants,” in Reproductive Allocation in Plants, 1st ed., E. G. Reekie, and F. A. Bazzaz (ed.). San Diego, USA. Elsevier Inc., 2005, 211-238.
G. E. Hutchinson, “Concluding remarks,” in Cold spring harbor symposium on quantitative biology, New Haven, USA pp. 415-457.
H. W. Heldt, and B. Piechulla, Plant biochemistry, 3rd ed. San Diego, USA: Elsevier Inc., 2004.
M. H. Zimmermann, “Hydraulic architecture of some diffuse-porous trees,” Canadian Journal of Botany, vol. 56, no. 18, pp. 2286-2295, 1978.
S. P. Bonser, and L. W. Aarssen, “Allometry and development in herbaceous plants: functional responses of meristem allocation to light and nutrient availability,” American Journal of Botany, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 404-412, 2003.
D. E. Weller, “The Interspecific Size-Density Relationship Among Crowded Plants Stands and Its Implications for the-3/2 Power Rule of Self-Thinning,” American Naturalist, vol. 133, no. 1, pp. 20-41, 1989.
J. Weiner, L. G. Campbell, J. Pino, and L. Echarte, “The allometry of reproduction within plant populations,” Journal of Ecology, vol. 97, no. 6, pp. 1220-1233, 2009.
T. Hashimoto, J. R. Stedinger, and D. P. Loucks, “Reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability criteria for water resource system performance evaluation,” Water resources research, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 14-20, 1982.
H. J. Fowler, C. G. Kilsby, and P. E. O’Connell, “Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system,” Water Resources Research, vol. 39, no. 8, pp. 2-23, 2003.
Y. M. Hoque, M. M. Hantush, and R. S. Govindaraju, “On the scaling behavior of reliability-resiliencevulnerability indices in agricultural watersheds,” Ecological Indicators, vol. 40, pp. 136-146, 2014.
T. Asefa, J. Clayton, A. Adams, and D. Anderson, “Performance evaluation of a water resources system under varying climatic conditions: Reliability, Resilience, Vulnerability and beyond,” Journal of Hydrology, vol. 508, pp. 53-65, 2014.
R. L. Chazdon, Second Growth: the promise of tropical forest regeneration in an age of deforestation, 1st ed. Chicago, USA: University of Chicago Press. 2014.
T. K. Rudel, Tropical forests: paths of destruction and regeneration: Columbia University Press, 2013.
S. J. Wright, “Tropical forests in a changing environment,” Trends in Ecology & Evolution, vol. 20, no. 10, pp. 553-560, 2005.
E. B. Arribalzaga, “Interpretación de las curvas de supervivencia,” Revista chilena de cirugía, vol. 59, no. 1, pp. 75-83, 2007.
H. Balzter, P. W. Braun, and W. Köhler, “Cellular automata models for vegetation dynamics,” Ecological modelling, vol. 107, no. 2-3, pp. 113-125, 1998.
A. J. Hamilton, “Species diversity or biodiversity?,” Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 75, no. 1, pp. 89-92, 2005.
K. N. Suding et al., “Scaling environmental change through the community-level: a trait-based responseand-effect framework for plants,” Global Change Biology, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 1125-1140, 2008.
Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), Climate change and biodiversity in the tropical Andes, 1st ed. Montevideo, Uruguay: InterAmerican Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) and Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment (SCOPE), 2011.
Copyright (c) 2018 Revista Facultad de Ingeniería
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
All the texts included in the Revista Facultad de Ingenieria Universidad de Antioquia -redin- are protected by copyrights. According to the law, their reproduction through any means, physical or electronic, without written consent by the Editorial Committee is forbidden. Complete texts of the articles will be fully and publically available, which means that they can be read, downloaded, copied, distributed, printed, searched for, or linked to. The opinions expressed in the published articles specifically belong to the authors and are not necessarily the same of the Editorial Committee or of the School of Engineering Management.