La climatología colombiana en modelos CMIP5/CMIP6: Sesgos persistentes y mejoras
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20210525Palabras clave:
Colombia, cambio climático, CMIP5, CMIP6, modelos de circulación generalResumen
El norte de Suramérica es una de las regiones más vulnerables ante cambio climático. Los Modelos de Circulación General (MCG) son las herramientas más empleadas para identificar los posibles impactos del cambio climático. Los MCG proveen información útil, aunque presentan sesgos sistemáticos, principalmente en zonas de topografía compleja. Se evalúa la habilidad de los modelos de la quinta y sexta fase del Proyecto de Comparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP) para representar el ciclo anual de precipitación y temperatura superficial del aire en Colombia. Se consideran diferentes bases de datos, incluyendo estaciones in situ del Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM). Los modelos de última generación (CMIP6) mejoran su desempeño con respecto a los modelos de la generación anterior (CMIP5), aunque siguen presentando sesgos sistemáticos como dificultades para representar la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical y procesos que dependen de la elevación, fundamentales para el comportamiento intra-anual de la precipitación y la temperatura en Colombia. Los modelos CMIP6 presentan mayores sesgos simulando la temperatura sobre los Andes Colombianos que los modelos CMIP5. Las proyecciones climáticas para finales del siglo XXI considerando los escenarios de mayores emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero sugieren condiciones futuras más cálidas y cambios mixtos de precipitación en Colombia, con reducciones de precipitación en el Orinoco y el Amazonas Colombiano en septiembre-noviembre, e incrementos en el este del Pacífico ecuatorial durante todo el año.
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