Ciclo financiero de referencia en Colombia

Jorge Uribe; Inés Ulloa; Johanna Perea

doi:10.17533/udea.le.n83a02

Authors

Jorge Uribe University of Valle
Inés Ulloa University of Valle
Johanna Perea University of Valle

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n83a02

Keywords:

financial cycles, classic cycles, synchronization, real cycle, Colombia, cycles in emerging economies

Abstract

In this paper we date recession and expansion phases for several financial variables in Colombia and construct a reference financial cycle for the economy. The selected variables include the stock market index (IGBC), the ratio of total loans to GDP, the ratio of consumption loans to GDP, and the return on assets (ROA) of bank institutions. The degree of synchronization between the financial cycle and some market and real variables, such as the passive market interest rate, is also analyzed. We conclude that three complete financial cycles have occurred from 1990 to 2013. Also, we find evidence favoring the existence of a relationship between the real and the financial cycles, and between the latter and the market interest rate.

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Author Biographies

Jorge Uribe, University of Valle

Professor of the Department of Economics of the Universidad del Valle. Member of the Applied Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Group of the same university. The author appreciates the support of the Universidad del Valle and the Center for Socioeconomic Research and Documentation (CIDSE) in time and resources.

Inés Ulloa, University of Valle

Professor of the Department of Economics at the Universidad del Valle. She is a member of the Applied Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Group of the same university. The author appreciates the support of the Universidad del Valle and the Center for Socioeconomic Research and Documentation (CIDSE) in time and resources.

Johanna Perea, University of Valle

Student of the Department of Economics of the Universidad del Valle. Member of the Applied Macroeconomics and Financial Economics Group of the same university.

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