Effets du déplacement forcé interne sur la criminalité : données probantes provenant de Colombie
DOI :
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.le.n101a353012Mots-clés :
Déplacement forcé interne, criminalité, panel spatial, Colombie, Amérique latine, migration interneRésumé
Les déplacements forcés internes, conséquence des stratégies de contrôle territorial des groupes armés, ont entraîné de profonds défis socio-économiques pour les zones d'accueil. Environ huit millions de personnes ont été touchées en Colombie, où règnent des conflits internes et des réseaux criminels depuis plus de cinq décennies. Cet article explore la relation entre la migration forcée interne et les taux de criminalité dans les municipalités colombiennes de 2003 à 2016, en se concentrant sur la dynamique spatiale. L'étude utilise un modèle de panel spatial et considère cinq catégories de crimes : les homicides, les enlèvements, les blessures corporelles, le vol d'automobile et le cambriolage résidentiel. Les résultats révèlent des associations significatives entre les déplacements forcés et certains types de criminalité, soulignant l’importance de l’analyse spatiale pour comprendre l’interaction entre migration et criminalité. Les résultats offrent des informations précieuses aux décideurs politiques et aux chercheurs, facilitant des interventions politiques éclairées et des initiatives communautaires pour faire face aux répercussions de la migration interne sur la dynamique de la criminalité.
Téléchargements
Références
Acevedo, K., & Bornacelly Olivella, I. D. (2014). Panel municipal del CEDE.
Almeida, E., Haddad, E., & Hewings, G. (2003). The Spatial Pattern of Crime in Minas Gerais: An Exploratory Analysis. Economia Aplicada, 9(1), 39–55. https://www.revistas.usp.br/ecoa/article/view/221387
Andresen, M. A. (2013). International immigration, internal migration, and homicide in Canadian provinces. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 57(5), 632–657. https://doi.org/10.1177/0306624X12436798
Anselin, L., Cohen, J., Cook, D., Gorr, W., & Tita, G. (2000). Spatial Analyses of Crime. In D. Duffe (ed.), Measurement and Analysis of Crime and Justice, Volume 4 (pp. 213-262). US Department of Justice, Office of Justice Programs and National Institute of Justice.
Arnio, A. N., & Baumer, E. P. (2012). Demography, Foreclosure, and Crime: Assessing Spatial Heterogeneity in Contemporary Models of Neighborhood Crime Rates. Demographic Research, 26, 449–488. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.18
Becker, G. S. (1968). Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach. Journal of Political Economy, 76 (2), 169–217. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1830482
Bell, B., Fasani, F., & Machin, S. (2013). Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves. Review of Economics and Statistics, 95(4), 1278–1290. https://doi.og/10.1162/REST_a_00337
Bell, B., & Machin, S. (2013). Immigrant Enclaves and Crime. Journal of Regional Science, 53(1), 118–141. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jors.12003
Bianchi, M., Buonanno, P., & Pinotti, P. (2012). Do Immigrants Cause Crime? Journal of the European Economic Association, 10(6), 1318-1347. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01085.x
Bourguignon, F., Nuñez, J., Sanchez, F., May, A., Bourguignon, F., & Sanchez, F. (2017). A Structural Model of Crime and Inequality in Colombia. Journal of the European Economic Association, 1(2), 440–449. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40005193
Bucheli, J., Fontenla, M., & Wadedll, B. (2019). Return Migration and Violence. World Development, 116, 113-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.12.010
Calderón-Mejía, V., & Ibáñez, A. M. (2016). Labour Market Effects of Migration-Related Supply Shocks: Evidence from Internal Refugees in Colombia. Journal of Economic Geography, 16(3), 695–713. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbv030
Cheng, J., Liu, J., & Wang, J. (2017). Domestic Migration, Home Rentals, and Crime Rates in China. The Journal of Chinese Sociology, 4(1), 8. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40711-017-0056-3
Chiswick, B., & Miller, P. (2014). Handbook of the Economics of International Migration. North Holland.
Cracolici, M. F., & Uberti, T. E. (2009). Geographical Distribution of Crime in Italian Provinces: A Spatial Econometric Analysis. Jahrbuch Fur Regionalwissenschaft, 29(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10037-008-0031-1
Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (DANE). (n.d. ). Estadísticas por tema: demografía y población. Accessed on 15 November 2022. https://www.dane.gov.co/index.php/estadisticas-por-tema/demografia-y-poblacion
Egger, E. M. (2022). Internal Migration and Crime in Brazil. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 71(1), 223-259. https://doi.org/10.1086/714740
Ehrlich, I. (1973). Participation in Illegitimate Activities: A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation. Journal of Political Economy, 81 (3). https://doi.org/10.1086/260058
Elhorst, J. P. (2014). Spatial Econometrics from Cross-Sectional Data to Spatial Panels. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-40340-8
Engel, S., & Ibáñez, A. M. (2007). Displacement Due to Violence in Colombia: A Household-Level Analysis. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 55(2), 335-365. https://econpapers.repec.org/article/ucpecdecc/y_3a2007_3av_3a55_3ai_3a2_3ap_3a335-65.htm
Fernandez, M., Ibáñez, A. M., & Peña, X. (2014). Adjusting the Labour Supply to Mitigate Violent Shocks: Evidence from Rural Colombia. The Journal of Development Studies, 50(8), 1135-1155. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.919384
Graif, C., & Sampson, R. J. (2009). Spatial Heterogeneity in the Effects of Immigration and Diversity on Neighborhood Homicide Rates. Homicide Studies, 13(3), 2–20. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767909336728
Herrick, B. H. (1966). Urban Migration and Economic Development in Chile. MIT Press Books.
Hirschi, T., & Stark, R. (1969). Hellfire and Delinquency. Social Problems, 17(2), 202-213. https://doi.org/10.2307/799866
Ibáñez, A. M. (2009). Forced Displacement in Colombia: Magnitude and Causes. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal, 4(1), 48-54. https://ideas.repec.org/a/epc/journl/v4y2009i1p48-54.html
Ibáñez, A. M., & Moya, A. (2010). Vulnerability of Victims of Civil Conflicts: Empirical Evidence for the Displaced Population in Colombia. World Development, 38(4), 647–663. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2009.11.015
Ibáñez, A. M., Rodríguez, C., & Zarruk, D. (2013). Crime, Punishment, and Schooling Decisions: Evidence from Colombian Adolescents [IDB working paper No. IDB-WP-413]. Inter-American Development Bank. https://publications.iadb.org/en/publication/11290/crime-punishment-and-schooling-decisions-evidence-colombian-adolescents
Ibáñez, A. M., & Vélez, C. E. (2008). Civil Conflict and Forced Migration: The Micro Determinants and Welfare Losses of Displacement in Colombia. World Development, 36(4), 659–676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.04.013
Ibáñez, A., & Moya, A. (2006). The Impact of Intra-State Conflict on Economic Welfare and
Consumption Smoothing: Empirical Evidence for The Displaced Population in Colombia [HiCN working papers 23]. https://ideas.repec.org/p/hic/wpaper/23.html
Ibáñez, A., & Velásquez, A. (2009). Identifying Victims of Civil Conflicts: An Evaluation of Forced Displaced Households in Colombia. Journal of Peace Research, 46(3), 431–451. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25654414
Ibáñez, A., & Vélez, C. (2008). Civil Conflict and Forced Migration: The Micro Determinants and Welfare Losses of Displacement in Colombia. World Development, 36(4), 659–676. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2007.04.013
InSight Crime (2021, January) Colombia Profile. https://insightcrime.org/colombia-organized-crime-news/colombia/
Jaitman, L., & Machin, S. (2013). Crime and immigration: new evidence from England and Wales. IZA Journal of Migration, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/2193-9039-2-19
Kollamparambil, U. (2019). Immigration, Internal Migration and Crime in South Africa: A Multi-Level Model Analysis. Development Policy, 37 (5), 672– 691. https://doi.org/10.1111/dpr.12382
Kubrin, C. E., Hipp, J. R., & Kim, Y. A. (2016). Different than the Sum of Its Parts: Examining the Unique Impacts of Immigrant Groups on Neighborhood Crime Rates. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 34, 1–36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-016-9320-y
Macdonald, J. M., Hipp, J. R., & Gill, C. (2013). The Effects of Immigrant Concentration on Changes in Neighborhood Crime Rates. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 29(2), 191–215. https://doi.org/10.1007/S10940-012-9176-8
Mears, D. P. (2001). The Immigration-Crime Nexus: Toward an Analytic Framework for Assessing and Guiding Theory, Research, and Policy. Sociological Perspectives, 44(1), 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1525/sop.2001.44.1.1
Meng, X., & Zhang, D. (2013). The Social Impact of Rural-Urban Migration on Urban ‘Natives’ [working paper]. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=d70c5fb879d8268c2dda80a99997b028b96e628d
Nunziata, L. (2015). Immigration and Crime: Evidence from Victimization Data. Journal of Population Economics, 28(3), 697–736. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-015-0543-2
Ousey, G. C., & Kubrin, C. E. (2009). Exploring the Connection between Immigration and Violent Crime Rates in U.S. Cities, 1980 – 2000. Social Problems, 56(3), 447–473. https://doi.org/10.1525/sp.2009.56.3.447
Policía Nacional de Colombia (n.d.). Estadística delictiva. Accessed on March 1 of 2018. https://www.policia.gov.co/grupo-informaci%C3%B3n-criminalidad/estadistica-delictiva
Reid, L. W., Weiss, H. E., Adelman, R. M., & Jaret, C. (2005). The Immigration-Crime Relationship: Evidence across US Metropolitan Areas. Social Science Research, 34(4), 757–780. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2005.01.001
Roche-Villarreal, L. (2012). Forced Displacement and Crime in Colombia [Memories]. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/document?repid=rep1&type=pdf&doi=6d3e0399ec3f1ed2ea0e23fcc2b977059e1a7347
Schultz, T. P. (1971). Rural-Urban Migration in Colombia. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 53 (2), 157-163. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1925711
Spenkuch, J. L. (2014). Understanding the Impact of Immigration on Crime. American Law and Economics Review, 16(1), 177-219. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24735701
Thomas, P. M. (2011). Theoretical Articulation on Immigration and Crime. Homicide Studies, 15(4), 382–403. https://doi.org/10.1177/1088767911424539
Tita, G. E., & Radil, S. M. (2010). Spatial Regression Models in Criminology: Modeling Social Processes in the SpatialWeights Matrix. Handbook of Quantitative Criminology. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-0-387-77650-7
Téllez, J. (2022). Land, Opportunism, and Displacement in Civil Wars: Evidence from Colombia.
American Political Science Review, 116 (2), 403–418. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055421001003
Torres-Preciado, V. H., Polanco-Gaytán, M., & Tinoco-Zermeño, M. A. (2017). Crime and Regional Economic Growth in Mexico: A Spatial Perspective. Papers in Regional Science, 96(3), 477–494. https://doi.org/10.1111/pirs.12205
Treyger, E. (2013). Migration and Violent Crime: Lessons from the Russian Experience. Georgetown Immigration Law Journal, 27(2), 257–310. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.31.041304.122308
Unidad de Víctimas (n.d.). Víctimas de conflicto armado. UpToDate. Accessed on March 1, 2018. https://www.unidadvictimas.gov.co/es/publicacion-de-datos-abiertos/
Wadsworth, T. (2010). Is Immigration Responsible for The Crime Drop? An Assessment of the Influence of Immigration on Changes in Violent Crime Between 1990 and 2000. Social Science Quarterly, 91(2), 531–553. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6237.2010.00706.x
Ye, X., & Wu, L. (2011). Analyzing the Dynamics of Homicide Patterns in Chicago: ESDA and Spatial Panel Approaches. Applied Geography, 31(2), 800–807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.08.00
Téléchargements
Fichiers supplémentaires
Publié-e
Comment citer
Numéro
Rubrique
Licence
(c) Tous droits réservés Andres Sanchez-Saldarriaga, Catalina Gomez Toro, Hermilson Velasquez, Juan Felipe Mejia Mejia 2024
Cette œuvre est sous licence Creative Commons Attribution - Pas d'Utilisation Commerciale - Partage dans les Mêmes Conditions 4.0 International.
Cette page, par Universidad de Antioquia, est autorisée sous une Licence d'attribution Creative Commons.
Les auteurs qui publient avec cette revue acceptent de conserver les droits d'auteur et d'accorder le droit de première publication à la revue, l'article sous licence sous une licence Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike permettant à d'autres de le partager tant qu'ils reconnaissent sa paternité et sa publication originale dans ce journal.
Les auteurs peuvent conclure des accords contractuels supplémentaires et distincts pour la distribution non exclusive de la version publiée de la revue (par exemple, la publier dans un référentiel institutionnel ou la publier dans un livre), à condition que ces accords soient sans but lucratif et être reconnu comme la source originale de publication.
Les auteurs sont autorisés et encouragés à publier leurs articles en ligne (par exemple, dans des dépôts institutionnels ou sur leurs sites Web), car cela peut conduire à de précieux échanges ainsi qu'à une plus grande citation des travaux publiés.
