Rainfall-intensity effect on landslide hazard assessment due to climate change in north-western Colombian Andes

Keywords: Disasters, landslides, natural hazards, climate change

Abstract

Landslides triggered by rainfall are one of the most frequent causes of disasters in tropical countries and mountainous terrains. Recent studies show an upsurge in landslide occurrence as an expected impact of human-induced climate change. This paper presents the analysis and implementation of two different physically-based models, SHALSTAB and TRIGRS, to evaluate the effect of rainfall on landslide hazard assessment in the north-western Colombian Andes. Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves were used in climate change scenarios for different return periods. According to the results, although higher rainfall intensities increase, landslide occurrence does not escalate in a direct or proportional relationship. Considering a steady infiltration process (SHALSTAB), the results show an expansion of d unstable areas, compared with a transient infiltration process (TRIGRS). A greater influence of rainfall duration instead of rainfall intensity was observed. The results highlight the need for studies that incorporate the scenarios of variability and climate change in the hazard assessment and land planning in the long term.

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Author Biographies

Edier Vicente Aristizábal Giraldo, Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Professor Geoscience and Environmental Department

Edwin García Aristizábal, Universidad de Antioquia

Professor Environmental School

Roberto Marín Sánchez, Universidad de Antioquia

Professor, Environmental School

Federico Gómez Cardona, Universidad Nacional de Colombia

Geological Engineering, Geoscience and Environmental Department

Juan Carlos Guzmán Martínez, Universidad de Antioquia

Professor, Environmental School

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Published
2020-12-14
How to Cite
Aristizábal GiraldoE. V., García AristizábalE., Marín SánchezR., Gómez CardonaF., & Guzmán MartínezJ. C. (2020). Rainfall-intensity effect on landslide hazard assessment due to climate change in north-western Colombian Andes. Revista Facultad De Ingeniería Universidad De Antioquia. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20201215
Section
Research paper