Efecto de la lluvia en la amenaza por movimientos en masa asociada al cambio climático
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20201215Palabras clave:
desastres, movimientos en masa, amenazas naturales, cambio climáticoResumen
Los movimientos en masa detonados por lluvias son una de las causas más frecuentes de desastres en países tropicales y terrenos montañosos. Estudios recientes muestran un aumento en la ocurrencia de movimientos en masa como un impacto esperado del cambio climático inducido por el hombre. Este documento presenta el análisis y la implementación de dos modelos diferentes basados en la física, SHALSTAB y TRIGRS, para evaluar el efecto de las lluvias en la evaluación de peligros de movimientos en masa en los Andes del noroeste colombiano. Las curvas intensidad-duración-frecuencia se utilizaron en escenarios de cambio climático para diferentes períodos de retorno. Según los resultados, aunque aumentan las intensidades de lluvia más altas, la ocurrencia de movimientos en masa no aumenta en una relación directa o proporcional. Teniendo en cuenta un proceso de infiltración constante (SHALSTAB), los resultados muestran áreas inestables mayores, en comparación con un proceso de infiltración transitoria (TRIGRS). Se observó una mayor influencia de la duración de la lluvia en lugar de la intensidad de la lluvia. Los resultados resaltan la necesidad de estudios que incorporen los escenarios de variabilidad y cambio climático en la evaluación de amenaza y la ordenación del territorio a largo plazo.
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