Water supply failure probability under influence of climate change - Balsillas river basin case study





Agroclimatology, agriculture, climate change adaptation, hydrology, water consumption


This project assesses the risk of water supply failure for the agricultural sector under climate change conditions by implementing hydrological models that support decision-making for satisfying consumptive demands in times of scarcity. This project was developed using hydrological modeling tools such as the HydroBID software and the SIMGES and SIMRISK water resource management models of AQUATOOL DSS. The flow series for a future scenario were obtained for different climate change scenarios from a Global Climate Model (GCM) and the Coordinated Regional Experiment on Climate Reduction (CORDEX) by downscaling the results from the global scale to basin-scale using a statistical method based on chaos theory. These projections show that under conditions of climate change, the agricultural sector of the Balsillas basin will not suffer significant impacts since they will be able to satisfy most demand points.

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Author Biographies

Darwin Mena Rentería, Universidad Santo Tomás

Professor, Faculty of Environmental Engineering 

Eydy Michell Espinosa, Universidad Santo Tomás

Faculty of Environmental Engineering 

Paula Carolina Soler, Universidad Santo Tomás

Faculty of Environmental Engineering 

Miguel Cañón Ramos, Universidad Santo Tomás

Researcher and Professor, Faculty of Environmental Engineering 

Freddy Santiago Duarte, Escuela Colombiana Ingeniería Julio Garavito

PhD and Professor, Center for Hydraulic Studies

Jordi Rafael Palacios González, Universidad Sergio Arboleda

Professor, Center for Hydraulic Studies


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How to Cite

Mena Rentería, D., Espinosa, E. M., Soler, P. C., Cañón Ramos, M. ., Duarte, F. S., & Palacios González, J. R. (2020). Water supply failure probability under influence of climate change - Balsillas river basin case study. Revista Facultad De Ingeniería Universidad De Antioquia, (103), 9–19. https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20201008

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