Simulation model for vehicle fleet growth to review public policies for transport demand management
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20250472Keywords:
Simulation models, Transportation Demand Management, Public Policies, vehicle fleetAbstract
The rapid increase in vehicle numbers within densely populated urban areas with limited road networks has become a significant challenge to city inhabitants. Driven by demographic and economic growth in recent decades, this trend has led to a gradual intensification of traffic congestion and longer commuting times, directly impacting productivity and quality of life. To counteract these negative impacts, governments have implemented Transport Demand Management (TDM) to restrict the circulation of private vehicles, discourage their acquisition, reduce traffic, and promote the use of public transport. However, due to the coercive characteristics of TDM, its effectiveness in discouraging the acquisition of private vehicles and its long-term effect on controlling the growth of urban vehicle fleets have been harshly questioned. This research uses recent scientific methodologies to estimate variations in vehicle fleet growth and identifies estimation variables in Medellín, using the publicly available city databases and a method for selecting the proper evaluation model. The selected methodology allowed us to evaluate the relationship between the age of the vehicles circulating on the road network, the demographic growth, and the increase in new vehicles. To do that, we proposed a model for an alternative public policy aimed at controlling vehicle fleet growth and the problems addressing traffic congestion in the coming years.
Downloads
References
X. Wang, D. Rodríguez, and A. Mahendra, “Support for market-based and command-and-control congestion relief policies in latin american cities: Effects of mobility, environmental health, and city-level factors,” Transportation Research Part A, vol. 146, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2020.12.004
T. Litman, “Mobility management innovative management strategies to transport problems,” in 25th Annual Southern African Transport Conference, SATC 2006 - 2010: Will Transport Infrastructure and Systems be Ready, vol. 2006, July 2006. [Online]. Available: http://hdl.handle.net/2263/6035
CAF, Desarrollo urbano y movilidad en américa latina. Caracas: SCIOTECA Espacio de Conocimiento Abierto, 2011. [Online]. Available: https://scioteca.caf.com/handle/123456789/419
AMVA, Plan Maestro de Movilidad para el Valle de Aburrá. Medellín, Colombia: Área Metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá, 2017. [Online]. Available: https://www.metropol.gov.co/movilidad/PlanMaestro/Plan%20Maestro%20de%20Movilidad.pdf
A. Köksal, S. E. Tekeli, S. A. Aksoy, A. Kiziltan, M. Kiziltan, N. Duran, and et al., “Long term characterization of the vehicle stock in turkey,” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 99, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.102988
R. Viri, J. Makinen, and H. Liimatainen, “Modelling car fleet renewal in finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios,” Transportation Research Procedia, vol. 112, Oct. 2021. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.08.012
R. Vidal, C. Duk, A. Guevara, and E. Rubinstein, “Análisis del estado del arte y experiencias de gestión de demanda de transporte urbano en américa latina y el caribe,” Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, Tech. Rep. IDB-TN-2003, Oct. 2020. [Online]. Available: https://tinyurl.com/4p5phwua
M. Luo, Z. Ma, W. Zhao, M. Enoch, and S.-J. Chien, “An ex-post evaluation of the public acceptance of a license plate-based restriction policy: A case study of xi’an, china,” Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, vol. 155, 2022. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2021.10.024
R. Viri, J. Mäkinen, and H. Liimatainen, “Modelling car fleet renewal in finland: A model and development speed-based scenarios,” Transportation Policy, vol. 112, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2021.08.012
M. Adnan, F. Outay, S. Ahmed, E. Brattich, S. Di-Sabatino, and D. Janssens, “Integrated agent-based microsimulation framework for examining impacts of mobility-oriented policies,” Personal and Ubiquitous Computing, vol. 25, no. 1, 2021. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1007/s00779-020-01363-w
L. Fridstrøm, V. Østli, and K. Johansen, “A stock-flow cohort model of the national car fleet,” European Transport Research Review, vol. 8, no. 22, 2016. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1007/s12544-016-0210-z
H. Kim, M. Ross, and G. Keoleian, “Optimal fleet conversion policy from a life cycle perspective,” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, vol. 9, no. 3, May. 2004. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2004.02.004
N. Gilbert and R. Conte, Emergence in social simulation. London: UCL Press, 1995, pp. 144–156. [Online]. Available: http://www.complexcity.info/files/2011/08/gilbert-emergence.pdf
L. Gulyás and G. Kampis, “Models, representations and comparisons in computer simulations,” Procedia Computer Science, vol. 66, 2015. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2015.11.003
C. M. Macal and M. J. North, “Agent-based modeling and simulation: abms examples,” in 2008 Winter Simulation Conference, Miami, FL, USA, 2008, pp. 101–112. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.1109/WSC.2008.4736060
U. Wilensky and W. Rand, An introduction to agent-based modeling. MIT Press, 2015.
A. Crooks, Agent-based Models and Geographical Information Systems, 1st ed. SAGE Publications Ltd, 2019. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.4135/9781529793543
A. Borshchev and A. Filippov, “From system dynamics and discrete even to practical agent based modeling,” in 22nd International Conference on System Dynamics and Society, 2004. [Online]. Available: https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2004/SDS_2004/PAPERS/381BORSH.pdf
V. Grimm, S. F. Railsback, E. Vincenot, U. Berger, and C. Gallagher, “The odd protocol for describing agent-based and other simulation models: A second update to improve clarity, replication, and structural realism,” Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 23, no. 2, 2020. [Online]. Available: http://doi.org/10.18564/jasss.4259
R. S. Ortiz-LLiguizaca, “Determinación del índice kvr (kilómetros vehículos recorrido) para el cantón cañar,” Undergraduate thesis, Universidad del Azuay, Cuenca, Ecuador, 2018. [Online]. Available: https://dspace.uazuay.edu.ec/bitstream/datos/8275/1/13998.pdf
D. Sarango and P. Moncayo, “Determinación del indicador kilómetros-vehículo recorrido (kvr) para la ciudad de cuenca,” Undergraduate thesis, Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, Cuenca, Ecuador, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://dspace.ups.edu.ec/handle/123456789/12152
U. Wilensky, “Netlogo: Center for connected learning comp.-based modeling,” Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, 1999.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Revista Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
The material published in the journal can be distributed, copied and exhibited by third parties if the respective credits are given to the journal. No commercial benefit can be obtained and derivative works must be under the same license terms as the original work.
Twitter