Hypothetical Variations in the Incidence and the Population Attributable Fraction of Liver, Colorectal and Breast Cancers, Resulting from Theoretical Reductions of the Body Mass Index in Colombia, 2016 – 2050
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rfnsp.e342008Keywords:
body mass index, neoplasms, obesity, simulationAbstract
Objective: To estimate the effect of a theoretical decrease impact of the body mass index on the incidence and the population attributable fraction of liver, colorectal and breast cancers in Colombian, 2016-2050. Methodology: A macro-simulation study was performed under three scenarios of future distributions of the body mass index: the first or of “Reference” (without intervening on the risk factor) and two interventions scenarios: the second consisting of a gradual reduction, accumulated over the first ten years, of 10 % of the difference between the expected and ideal mean values of the body mass index and sustaining these until 2050; and the third corresponding to achieve “Complete population with ideal Body Mass Index” as of 2017. Results: It was estimated that the proportions of cancers that could be avoided under the third scenario, would range between 8,0 % (colorectal cancer) and 16,7 % (liver cancer) among women and between 10,4 % (colorectal cancer) and 12,2 % (liver cancer) among men. The avoidable number of cases projected under the second scenario would correspond to approximately 4009 breast cancers (in women), 2086 colorectal cancers and 728 liver cancers, and under the third scenario to 48 410 breast cancers, 25 089 colorectal cancers and 8648 liver cancers. Conclusion: Interventions to reduce excess weight in the Colombian population, would especially contribute to avoid liver cancer in both sexes and the new cases of breast cancer (in women).
Downloads
References
(1). Ferlay J, Ervik M, Lam F, et al. Global Cancer Observatory: Cancer Today. Mundial y Colombia. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer [internet]; 2018 [citado 13 jun. 2019]. Disponible en: https://gco.iarc.fr/today/data/factsheets/populations/900-world-fact-sheets.pdf
(2). Wild CP, Weiderpass E, Stewart BW, editors. World cancer report: Cancer research for cancer prevention [internet]. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer; 2020 [citado 13 jun. 2019]. Disponible en: http://publications.iarc.fr/586
(3). Lauby-Secretan B, Scoccianti C, Loomis D, et al. Body fatness and cancer — Viewpoint of the iarc Working Group. N Engl J Med. 2016;375(8):794-8. doi: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMsr1606602
(4). Colombia, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social (msps), Departamento Administrativo para la Prosperidad Social (dps), Instituto Colombiano de Bienestar Familiar (icbf), Instituto Nacional de Salud (ins), Universidad Nacional de Colombia. Encuesta Nacional de la Situación Nutricional ensin 2015. Bogotá: msps [internet]; 2020 [citado 2020 abr. 3]. Disponible en: https://www.minsalud.gov.co/sites/rid/Lists/BibliotecaDigital/RIDE/VS/ED/GCFI/libro-ensin-2015.pdf
(5). Pischon T, Nimptsch K. Obesity and risk of cancer: An introductory overview. En: Pischon T, Nimptsch K, editors. Obesity and cancer. Recent results in cancer research. Volume 208. Geneva: Springer, Cham.; 2016. pp. 10-11. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42542-9_1
(6). Stone TW, McPherson M, Darlington LG. Obesity and cancer: Existing and new hypotheses for a causal connection. EBioMedicine. 2018;30:14-28. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ebiom.2018.02.022
(7). Rockhill B, Newman B, Weinberg C. Use and misuse of population attributable fractions. Am J Public Health. 1998;88(1):15-19. doi: https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.88.1.15
(8). Northridge ME. Annotation: Public health methods — Attributable risk as a link between causality and public health action. Am J Public Health. 1995;85(9):1202-4. doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.2105%2Fajph.85.9.1202
(9). Llorca J, Fariñas-Álvarez C, Delgado-Rodríguez M. Fracción atribuible poblacional: cálculo e interpretación. Gac Sanit. 2001;15(1):61-67. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0213-9111(01)71519-1
(10). Greenland S, Rothman KJ, Lash TL. Measures of effect and measures of association. En: Rothman KJ, Greenland S, Lash T, editors. Modern epidemiology. 3rd ed. Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins; 2008. pp. 51-70.
(11). Greenland S, Robins JM. Conceptual problems in the definition and interpretation of attributable fractions. Am J Epidemiol. 1988;128(6):1185-97. doi: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115073
(12). Arnold M, Leitzmann M, Freisling H, et al. Obesity and cancer: An update of the global impact. Cancer Epidemiol. 2016;41:8-15. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2016.01.003
(13). Soerjomataram I, De Vries E, Engholm G, et al. Impact of a smoking and alcohol intervention programme on lung and breast cancer incidence in Denmark: An example of dynamic modelling with Prevent. Eur J Cancer. 2010;46(14):2617-24. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.051
(14). Menvielle G, Soerjomataram I, De Vries E, et al. Scenarios of future lung cancer incidence by educational level: Modelling study in Denmark. Eur J Cancer. 2010;46(14):2625-32. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.027
(15). Soerjomataram I, Oomen D, Lemmens V, et al. Increased consumption of fruit and vegetables and future cancer incidence in selected European countries. Eur J Cancer [Internet]. 2010;46(14):2563-80. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.026
(16). De Vries E, Soerjomataram I, Lemmens VEPP, et al. Lifestyle changes and reduction of colon cancer incidence in Europe: A scenario study of physical activity promotion and weight reduction. Eur J Cancer. 2010;46(14):2605-16. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2010.07.040
(17). Wilson LF, Baade PD, Green AC, et al. The impact of changing the prevalence of overweight/obesity and physical inactivity in Australia: An estimate of the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers 2013-2037. Int J Cancer. 2019;144(9):2088-98. doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.31943
(18). De Vries E, Quintero DC, Henríquez-Mendoza G, Herrán OF. Population attributable fractions for colorectal cancer and red and processed meats in Colombia - a macro-simulation study. Colomb. Med. [internet]. 2017 [citado 2018 feb. 2]; 48(2):64-69. Disponible en: http://colombiamedica.univalle.edu.co/index.php/comedica/article/view/2458/3361
(19). De Vries E, Torres MZ, Rojas MP, et al. Theoretical reduction of the incidence of colorectal cancer in Colombia from reduction in the population exposure to tobacco, alcohol, excess weight and sedentary lifestyle: A modelling study. bmj Open. 2020;10(10):e037388. doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-037388
(20). Colombia, Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística (dane). Estimaciones de población 1985-2005 y proyecciones de población 2005-2020 nacional y departamental desagregado por área, sexo y grupos quinquenales de edad. [internet]; 2011 may. [citado 2018 feb. 2]. Disponible en: https://www.dane.gov.co/files/investigaciones/poblacion/seriesp85_20/EstimacionesProyecciones1985__020.xls
(21). Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (cepal), Observatorio Demográfico 2013. Proyecciones de población. Santiago de Chile: Naciones Unidas; 2014.
(22). Colombia, Ministerio de la Protección Social (mps), Instituto Colombiano de Bienestar Familiar (icbf), Instituto Nacional de Salud (ins), et al. Encuesta nacional de la situación nutricional en Colombia 2010 - ensin. Bogotá: icbf; 2011.
(23). Colombia, Ministerio de la Protección Social (msps). Resolución 2121, por la cual se adoptan los patrones de crecimiento publicados por la Organización Mundial de la Salud-oms en el 2006 y 2007 para los niños, niñas y adolescentes de 0 a 18 años de edad y se dictan otras disposiciones (2010 jun. 9).
(24). Colombia, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social (msps). Resolución 2465, por la cual se adoptan los indicadores antropométricos, patrones de referencia y puntos de corte para la clasificación antropométrica del estado nutricional de niñas, niños y adolescentes menores de 18 años de edad (2016 jun. 14).
(25). Arnold M, Pandeya N, Byrnes G, et al. Global burden of cancer attributable to high body-mass index in 2012: A population-based study. Lancet Oncol. 2015;16(1):36-46. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(14)71123-4
(26). Pardo Ramos C, Cendales Duarte R. Incidencia, mortalidad y prevalencia de cáncer en Colombia, 2007-2011. Bogotá: Instituto Nacional de Cancerología ese, Ministerio de Salud y Protección Social [internet]; 2015 [citado 2018 abr. 27]. Disponible en: https://www.cancer.gov.co/files/libros/archivos/incidencia1.pdf
(27). Moghaddam AA, Woodward M, Huxley R. Obesity and risk of colorectal cancer: A meta-analysis of 31 studies with 70,000 events. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2007;16(12):2533-47. doi: https://doi.org/10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-07-0708
(28). Rui R, Lou J, Zou L, et al. Excess body mass index and risk of liver cancer: A nonlinear dose-response meta-analysis of prospective studies. PLoS one. 2012;7(9):e44522. doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0044522
(29). Neuhouser ML, Aragaki AK, Prentice RL, et al. Overweight, obesity, and postmenopausal invasive breast cancer risk. jama Oncol. 2015;1(5):611-21. doi: https://doi.org/10.1001/jamaoncol.2015.1546
(30). Wilson LF, Baade PD, Green AC, et al. The impact of reducing alcohol consumption in Australia: An estimate of the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers 2013-2037. Int J Cancer. 2019;145:2944-53. doi: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ijc.32204
(31). Ahmad OB, Boschi-Pinto C, Lopez AD, et al. Age standardization of rates: A new who Standard. gpe Discussion Paper Series No. 31. World Health Organization [internet]; 2001 [citado 2019 mar. 4]. pp. 1-14. Disponible en: https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper31.pdf
(32). Steenland K, Armstrong B. An overview of methods for calculating the burden of disease due to specific risk factors. Epidemiology. 2006;17(5):512-9. doi: https://doi.org/10.1097/01.ede.0000229155.05644.43
(33). Colombia, Ministerio de Salud. Resolución 8430, por la cual se establecen las normas científicas, técnicas y administrativas para la investigación en salud (1993 oct. 4).
(34). Abarca-Gómez L, Abdeen ZA, Hamid ZA, et al. Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: A pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128 9 million children, adolescents, and adults. Lancet. 2017;390(10113):2627-42; Suppl 390:1-437. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32129-3
(35). Pearson-Stuttard J, Zhou B, Kontis V, et al. Worldwide burden of cancer attributable to diabetes and high body-mass index: A comparative risk assessment. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2018;6(6):e6-e15. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(18)30150-5
(36). Chooi YC, Ding C, Magkos F. The epidemiology of obesity. Metab Clin Exp. 2019;92:6-10. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.metabol.2018.09.005
(37). Romieu I, Dossus L, Barquera S, et al. Energy balance and obesity: What are the main drivers? Cancer Causes Control. 2017;28:247-58. doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10552-017-0869-z
(38). International Agency for Research on Cancer. Energy balance and obesity. Romieu I, Dossus L, Willett WC, editors. iarc Working Group Report No. 10. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer [internet]; 2017 [citado 2019 jun. 13]. Disponible en: http://publications.iarc.fr/553
(39). Colombia, Congreso de la República. Ley 1355, por la cual se define la obesidad y las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles asociadas a esta como una prioridad de salud pública y se adoptan medidas para control, atención y prevención (2009 oct. 14).
(40). Organización Panamericana de la Salud, Organización Mundial de la Salud. Modelo de perfil de nutrientes de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud. Washington: ops [internet]; 2016 [citado 2020 ene. 20]. Disponible en: http://iris.paho.org/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/18622/9789275318737_spa.pdf
(41). Herrán OF, Bermúdez JN, Zea MP. Cambios alimentarios en Colombia; resultados de dos encuestas nacionales de nutrición, 2010-2015. Salud uis. 2020;52(1):21-31. doi: https://doi.org/10.18273/revsal.v52n1-2020004
(42). Machado LF, Arnold M, Maluf F, et al. The increasing burden of cancer attributable to high body mass index in Brazil. Cancer Epidemiol. 2018;54:63-70. doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2018.03.006
Published
How to Cite
License
Copyright (c) 2021 University of Antioquia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
The contents of the articles are the responsibility of the authors
The editorial committee has editorial independence from the National School of Public Health "Héctor Abad Gómez" of the University of Antioquia.
The editorial committee is not responsible for aspects related to copying, plagiarism or fraud that may appear in the articles published in it.
When you are going to reproduce and disclose photographs or personal data in printed or digital format, informed consent is required. Therefore, this requirement is required of the author at the time of receipt of the manuscript.
Authors are responsible for obtaining the necessary permissions to reproduce any material protected by reproduction rights.
The authors preserve the moral rights and assign the economic rights that will correspond to the University of Antioquia, to publish it, distribute electronic copies, include them in indexing services, directories or national and international databases in Open Access, under the Creative Commons Attribution license -Not Commercial-Share Equal 4.0 International Commercial (CC BY-NC-SA) which allows others to distribute, remix, retouch, and create from the work in a non-commercial way, as long as the respective credit and license are granted. new creations under the same conditions.
The authors will sign the declaration of transfer of economic rights to the University of Antioquia, after the acceptance of the manuscript.
The editorial committee reserves the right to reject the articles whose authors do not offer satisfactory explanations about the contribution of each author, to meet the criteria of authorship in the submission letter. All authors must meet the four criteria of authorship according to ICMJE: "a) .- That there is a substantial contribution to the conception or design of the article or to the acquisition, analysis or interpretation of the data. b) That they have participated in the design of the research work or in the critical review of its intellectual content. c) .- That has been intervened in the approval of the final version that will be published.d). That they have the capacity to respond to all aspects of the article in order to ensure that issues related to the accuracy or integrity of any part of the work are adequately investigated and resolved. "
-- 
--
