A Probabilistic Analysis with Random Walks of the Number of People Living with HIV Worldwide

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.rfnsp.v36n1a04

Keywords:

HIV, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, probability, epidemics, long-term HIV survivors

Abstract

Introduction: This is a study of the yearly dynamic of the HIV epidemic based on random walks has proven to be useful to take this highly variable phenomenon to a predictable behavior. Objective: Predict the behavior of the dynamic of the number of people living with HIV via a probabilistic random walk. Methodology: The yearly value of people living with HIV worldwide was analyzed from 1990 to 2009, based
on probability spaces produced with a probabilistic random walk, and then, developed the prediction of the yearly value of people living with HIV for 2010, 2011 and 2012. Results: The yearly volume of people living with HIV was predicted with a 98.95% success rate in 2010, 98.82% in 2011 and 98.99% for the 2012 prediction.
Conclusions: Mathematical orders were established based on the probabilistic random walk, establishing practically deterministic predictions of the number of people living with HIV which could be useful for public health decisions and to evaluate interventions.
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Author Biographies

Javier Oswaldo Rodríguez velásquez, Country Clinic Research Center

Medical Doctor (MD). Director of the Insight Research Group. Country Clinic Research Center. Colombia.

Diego Iván Oliveros Acosta, Institución Universitaria Politécnico Grancolombiano

M.Sc. in Engineering. Institución Universitaria Politécnico Grancolombiano. Software Construction Line. Systems Engineering and Telecommunications Department. Faculty of Engineering and Basic Sciences. Colombia.

Maria Yolanda Soracipa Muñoz, National Open and Distance University

Research Group Insight. Teaching School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering (ECBTI). National Open and Distance University (UNAD). Colombia.

Luz Mery Bernal, National Open and Distance University

Director of the Bioinnova group. Professor at the School of Health Sciences (ECISALUD). National Open and Distance University (UNAD). Colombia.

Sandra Catalina Correa Herrera, Country Clinic Research Center

Researcher of the Insight Group. Country Clinic Research Center. Bogotá. Colombia.

Laura Ibeth Abrahem Martínez, Country Clinic Research Center

Researcher of the Insight Group. Country Clinic Research Center. Bogotá. Colombia.

Luz Azucena Flórez Preciado, National Open and Distance University

Engineer. Teacher at the School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering (ECBTI). National Open and Distance University (UNAD). Bogotá, Colombia.

Dharma Rodríguez Correa, Country Clinic Research Center

Researcher of the Insight Group. Country Clinic Research Center. Bogotá. Colombia.

Yoshua Bahamon Rodríguez, National Open and Distance University

Engineer. Teacher at the School of Basic Sciences, Technology and Engineering (ECBTI). National Open and Distance University (UNAD). Bogota Colombia.

Oscar Mauricio Valero, National Open and Distance University

Medical Doctor (MD). M.Sc in Infections and Health in the Tropics. Epidemiologist. Teacher at the School of Health Sciences ECISALUD. National Open and Distance University UNAD. Colombia.

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Published

2018-03-14

How to Cite

1.
Rodríguez velásquez JO, Oliveros Acosta DI, Soracipa Muñoz MY, Bernal LM, Correa Herrera SC, Abrahem Martínez LI, Flórez Preciado LA, Rodríguez Correa D, Bahamon Rodríguez Y, Valero OM. A Probabilistic Analysis with Random Walks of the Number of People Living with HIV Worldwide. Rev. Fac. Nac. Salud Pública [Internet]. 2018 Mar. 14 [cited 2025 Jan. 30];36(1):27-33. Available from: https://revistas.udea.edu.co/index.php/fnsp/article/view/328339

Issue

Vol. 36 No. 1 (2018): Enero - Abril

Section

Modelado matemático y simulación

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