Determination of photovoltaic power by modeling solar radiation with Gamma distribution in the CEDER microgrid
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17533/udea.redin.20200579Keywords:
gamma distribution, microgrid, solar radiation, simulated powerAbstract
The article proposes a methodology applicable to any photovoltaic (PV) plant to obtain an approximation of the monthly production of solar array power. The analysis was carried out in seven systems, of different technologies and capacities, connected to the microgrid of the Center for the Development of Renewable Energies (CEDER) belonging to the Center for Energy, Environmental and Technological Research (CIEMAT) in Soria, Spain. The proposal simulates radiation by combining and crossing two Gamma probability distributions, representing the days with the best and worst solar resources, respectively. As a result, a matrix was created with 12 variables that define the monthly behavior of the radiation. On the other hand, the granularity of the PV generation was homogenized to know it at any moment through polynomial functions. Once both characterizations were known, it was possible to predict the monthly power of each PV array. The methodology has been validated with the measurement approximation index, developed in the text, and with specialized software. The results presented will help in the dimensioning of a backup model and will collaborate in the adequate management of energy.
Downloads
References
H. Rudnik, L. A. Barroso, C. Skerk, and A. Blanco, “South American reform lessons - twenty years of restructuring and reform in Argentina, Brazil, and Chile,” Power and Energy Magazine , vol. 3, no. 4, August 2005. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1109/MPAE.2005.1458230
S. Mocarquer, L. A. Barroso, H. Rudnik, B. Bezerra, and M. V. Pereira, “Balance of power,” Power and Energy Magazine , vol. 7, no. 5, September 2009. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1109/MPE.2009.933417
C. Risso, “Benefits of demands control in a smart-grid to compensate the volatility of non-conventional energies,” Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia , no. 93, October 2019. [Online]. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.17533/10.17533/udea.redin.20190404
L. Hernández and et al ., “Artificial neural network for short-term load forecasting in distribution systems,” Energies , vol. 7, March 2014. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.3390/en7031576
The cost of generating electricity , The Royal Academy of Engineering, London, UK, 2004.
Power system reserves and costs with intermittent generation , UK Energy Research Centre, London, UK, 2006.
S. Y. Lin and J. F. Chen, “Distributed optimal power flow for smart grid transmission system with renewable energy sources,” Energy , vol. 56, July 1 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2013.04.011
J. Skea and et al ., “Intermittent renewable generation and maintaining power system reliability,” IET Generation, Transmission & Distribution , vol. 2, no. 1, February 2008. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-gtd:20070023
T. P. Chang, “Investigation on frequency distribution of global radiation using different probability density functions,” Int. J. Appl. Sci. Eng. , vol. 8, no. 2, 2010. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.6703/IJASE.2010.8(2).99
R. Sánchez, G. R. Aguirre, S. Sánchez, and J. Alcalá, “Investigando variaciones aleatorias de radiación solar en Guadalajara, México,” Revista Iberoamericana de Ciencias , vol. 3, no. 4, pp. 99–110, 2016.
I. Razika and I. Nabila, “Modeling of monthly global solar radiation in M’sila region (Algeria),” in 7 th International Renewable Energy Congress (IREC) , Hammamet, Tunisia, 2016, pp. 1–6.
H. Assunção, J. F. Escobedo, and A. P. Oliveira, “Modelling frequencydistributionof5-minute-averagedsolarradiationindexes using Beta probability functions,” Theor. Appl. Climatol. , vol. 75, no. 3, September 2003. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-003-0733-9
T. Soubdhan, R. Emilion, and R. Calif, “Classification of daily solar radiation distributions using a mixture of Dirichlet distributions,” Solar Energy , vol. 83, no. 7, July 2009. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2009.01.010
M. Jurado, J. M. Caridad, and V. Ruiz, “Statistical distribution of the clearness index with radiation data integrated over five minute intervals,” Solar Energy , vol. 55, no. 6, December 1995. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1016/0038-092X(95)00067-2
R. A. López, L. Hernández, L. O. Jamed, and V. Alonso, “Monthly characterization of the generation of photovoltaic arrays. microgrid case CEDER, Soria, Spain,” in II Ibero-American Congress of Smart Cities , Soria, Spain, 2019, pp. 185–198.
N. Uribe, M. Latorre, I. Angulo, and D. D. la Vega, “Aprovechamiento de los recursos renovables e integración de las TICs: ejemplo práctico de una microred eléctrica,” in III Congreso Ibero-Americano de Empreendedorismo, Energía, Ambiente e Tecnología , Braganca, Portugal, 2017, pp. 161–166.
A. Driemel and et al ., “Baseline surface radiation network (BSRN): structure and data description (1992-2017),” Earth System Science Data , vol. 10, February 2018. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2018-8
I. Arroyo, L. C. Bravo, H. Llinás, and F. L. Muñoz, “Distribuciones poisson y gamma: Una discreta y continua relación,” Prospect. , vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 99–107, Jan. 2014.
M. Bidegain and A. Diaz, “Análisis estadístico de datos climáticos,” PhD. dissertation, Universidad de la República, Montevideo, Uruguay, 2011.
R. A. López, L. Hernández, L. O. Jamed, and V. Alonso, “Solar intermittency with spline fit modeling. microgrid case CEDER, Soria, Spain,” in I Ibero-American Congress of Smart Cities , Soria, Spain, 2018, pp. 592–601.
G. E. Box and D. R. Cox, “An analysis of transformations,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society , vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 211–252, 1964.
R. A. López, L. Hernández, L. O. Jamed, and V. Alonso, “Spline adjustment for modelling solar intermittences,” Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia , vol. 94, January 2020. [Online]. Available: http://dx.doi.org/10.17533/10.17533/udea.redin.20190524
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2021 Revista Facultad de Ingeniería Universidad de Antioquia
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Revista Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Antioquia is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/deed.en
You are free to:
Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format
Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material
Under the following terms:
Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
NonCommercial — You may not use the material for commercial purposes.
ShareAlike — If you remix, transform, or build upon the material, you must distribute your contributions under the same license as the original.
The material published in the journal can be distributed, copied and exhibited by third parties if the respective credits are given to the journal. No commercial benefit can be obtained and derivative works must be under the same license terms as the original work.
Twitter